GTAP model extension on FDI and productivity

Who can apply:Organisations able to deliver economic modelling and econometric analysis (research institutes, consultancies, universities). Electronic submission via EU Login is required. This is an EU DG TRADE procurement. 1

Lead contracting authority:European Commission, DG TRADE. Submissions and expressions of interest must be sent electronically through the Funding & Tenders Portal using an EU Login account.

Title:GTAP model extension on FDI and productivity. Reference / Procedure identifier: EC-TRADE/2026/LVP/0035-EXA. Lead contracting authority: European Commission, DG TRADE - Trade. Procurement type: services (market and economic research; polling and statistics; CPV 79300000, additional CPV 79311400). Nature of procedure: Planned negotiated procedure for low or middle value contract (publication announcing intent to launch a future negotiated low or middle value procedure). Maximum contract duration: 12 months. Framework agreement: none indicated. This notice is an advance publication of intent; it is not yet a call for tenders.

Primary objective:The project aims to implement a model mechanism to endogenise the productivity effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) within the GTAP modelling framework, using econometric estimates of the elasticities that link FDI to productivity.

Eligible Applicant Types:Likely eligible applicants include consultancies and firms specialised in economic modelling and market research, academic institutions and university research groups with GTAP and CGE modelling experience, research institutes, think tanks, independent modelling experts, consortia combining these entities, and other organisations legally capable of entering into a service contract with the European Commission. The notice does not explicitly restrict applicants by size (SME suitability indicator is false) but requires capability to deliver specialised economic modelling services.

Funding Type and Contract Nature:This is a public procurement for services (contract for services). The instrument is a negotiated procedure leading to a service contract; it is not a grant, loan, equity instrument or prize.

Consortium Requirement:The publication does not mandate a consortium. Submissions may be from a single legal entity or from a consortium / joint offer where members combine complementary expertise. The contracting documents to be published at the call stage will specify whether consortia need to be formalised by a lead partner and which supporting documentation is required.

Beneficiary Scope (Geographic Eligibility):The contracting authority is the European Commission (DG TRADE). The call is published on the EU Funding & Tenders Portal and therefore will follow the Commission rules on eligible countries for procurement participation; in practice this includes entities established in EU Member States and other countries listed in the Contract Notice when published (EEA, EU candidate countries or third countries may be eligible depending on publication specifics). The summary itself does not list specific country eligibility other than the Commission as lead authority.

Target Sectors and Expertise Required:Core thematic targets are international trade policy analysis and economic modelling. Required technical expertise will include GTAP model configuration and coding, computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, econometric estimation of FDI-productivity elasticities, integration of econometric estimates into CGE model functional forms, scenario design and simulation, validation and testing, and documentation sufficient for Commission use and potential publication. Knowledge of trade policy, FDI channels, productivity measurement, and relevant data sources (GTAP database, bilateral FDI data, firm-level productivity datasets where applicable) is expected.

Project Stage and Deliverables:Expected stage: development and implementation of model extensions (applied research / model engineering). Deliverables will likely include a technical design note for the endogenisation mechanism, econometric estimation results for FDI-productivity elasticities, modified GTAP code and model documentation, worked examples / simulation runs demonstrating the mechanism under typical trade/FDI scenarios, validation results and final report. The contract duration is up to 12 months, indicating a compact development and delivery schedule.

Funding Amount:Estimated total contract value: not specified in the published summary. The notice is a publication of intent for a low or middle value negotiated procedure; therefore the contract budget will be published with the actual call documents. No firm funding range is provided in the public summary.

Application Type and Process:This is an open expression of interest followed by a negotiated procedure. Applicants must first submit an electronic expression of interest via the Funding & Tenders Portal (EU Login required) within the stated EOIs dates. After the EOIs deadline the contracting authority will publish the negotiated procedure call and invite selected candidates to negotiate and submit full offers. The planned indicative launch of the negotiated procedure is 05/10/2026.

Nature of Support:Successful applicants will receive a paid service contract from the European Commission. Support is monetary remuneration for delivered services; non-monetary services (e.g., access to Commission data or workshops) may also be part of contract management but the primary support is contractual payment.

Application Stages and Selection Process:At least two main stages are visible: (1) expression of interest (EOI) submission via the Portal, and (2) negotiated procedure leading to selection and award. The negotiated procedure itself may include additional phases (shortlisting, negotiation meetings, submission of final technical and financial offers, evaluation), so applicants should expect a multi-step selection process. The exact number of internal evaluation stages will be set out in the call documents.

Success Rates:No success rate or historical award rate is provided in the publication. As a Commission negotiated procedure for a single service contract, typically only a small number of candidates are invited to negotiate and one contract will be awarded; therefore the ex-ante probability of award per respondent is low and depends on the number of EOIs and shortlisted candidates.

Co-funding Requirement:No co-funding from applicants is requested or required in the summary. This is a standard service procurement where the Commission funds the contracted services; any requirement for co-financing would be explicit in the call documents, which are not included in this notice.

Templates and Submission Materials:At this publication stage no specific application templates are attached. The Funding & Tenders Portal will provide eSubmission templates and the negotiated procedure call dossier (Terms of Reference, model contract, selection and award criteria, required administrative documents) when the call is launched. Applicants should prepare: capability statements, technical proposals describing approach to endogenise productivity via econometric elasticities, CVs of key experts, proof of previous GTAP/CGE work, methodology and workplan, and a financial offer. EOIs are submitted electronically through the Portal; full tender templates will be those published with the call documents.

Required technical capabilities likely include:deep experience with GTAP modelling and the GTAP database; strong CGE modelling skills and capacity to modify model code; econometric expertise to estimate FDI-productivity elasticities using appropriate micro or macro datasets and robust identification strategies; ability to integrate econometric parameter estimates into CGE functional forms; software and computational capacity to run model scenarios; clear documentation and reproducible code practices; and prior experience delivering contracted advisory or modelling services to public authorities or international organisations.