GTAP model extension on FDI and productivity

Planned European Commission (DG TRADE) negotiated procurement for a services contract titled GTAP model extension on FDI and productivity to endogenise productivity effects of foreign direct investment in the GTAP framework using econometrically estimated FDI-productivity elasticities. Expression of interest is electronic via the EU Funding & Tenders Portal, opening 16 September 2026 with a deadline of 1 October 2026, and the contract duration is up to 12 months; estimated total value is not published. Suitable applicants include economic consultancies, research institutes, universities and modelling specialists with demonstrable GTAP/CGE modelling and econometric expertise; final call documents will set eligibility, selection criteria and contractual conditions.

Opportunity type

Quick summary

Planned negotiated tender (low/middle value) to implement a mechanism in the GTAP model that endogenises productivity effects of Foreign Direct Investment using econometric elasticity estimates. Contract nature: services; main CPV: market and economic research and statistics.

Who can apply:Organisations able to deliver economic modelling and econometric analysis (research institutes, consultancies, universities). Electronic submission via EU Login is required. This is an EU DG TRADE procurement. ¹

1. 1Procedure type: planned negotiated procedure for middle/low value contract
2. 2Maximum contract duration: 12 months
3. 3Nature of contract: services (CPV 79300000 / 79311400)
4. 4SME suitability: marked as not suitable for SMEs (smeSuitableIndicator: false)

Lead contracting authority:European Commission, DG TRADE. Submissions and expressions of interest must be sent electronically through the Funding & Tenders Portal using an EU Login account.

Footnotes

1. 1Tender details and future procurement documentation will be published on the EU Funding & Tenders Portal: ec.europa.eu

Basic identification and administrative details

Title:GTAP model extension on FDI and productivity. Reference / Procedure identifier: EC-TRADE/2026/LVP/0035-EXA. Lead contracting authority: European Commission, DG TRADE - Trade. Procurement type: services (market and economic research; polling and statistics; CPV 79300000, additional CPV 79311400). Nature of procedure: Planned negotiated procedure for low or middle value contract (publication announcing intent to launch a future negotiated low or middle value procedure). Maximum contract duration: 12 months. Framework agreement: none indicated. This notice is an advance publication of intent; it is not yet a call for tenders.

Primary objective:The project aims to implement a model mechanism to endogenise the productivity effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) within the GTAP modelling framework, using econometric estimates of the elasticities that link FDI to productivity.

Key dates and milestones

1. 1Publication / summary entry date: 16/09/2026 (Europe/Brussels).
2. 2Start date for expression of interest: 16/09/2026 (Europe/Brussels).
3. 3Deadline for expression of interest: 01/10/2026 00:59 (Europe/Brussels).
4. 4Indicative date of launch of the negotiated procedure: 05/10/2026 (Europe/Brussels).
5. 5EXA registration deadline listed as: 30/09/2026 23:59:59 (Europe/Brussels).

Submission method and contact mechanism

Expressions of interest and subsequent electronic submissions must be made via the EU Funding & Tenders Portal using an EU Login account. Method of expression of interest: electronic eSubmission via the Portal. Submissions must be sent exclusively to the address for submission given on the Portal. Public Q&A is available on the Portal but at the time of scraping there were no public Q&A entries.

Detailed opportunity attributes and requirements

The contracting authority intends to procure expert services to modify/extend the GTAP computable general equilibrium modelling framework so that productivity effects of FDI are endogenous and driven by econometrically estimated elasticities. The activity is classed under market and economic research; polling and statistics (CPV 79300000 and 79311400). The procurement is delivered as a services contract with a planned duration of up to 12 months.

Eligible Applicant Types:Likely eligible applicants include consultancies and firms specialised in economic modelling and market research, academic institutions and university research groups with GTAP and CGE modelling experience, research institutes, think tanks, independent modelling experts, consortia combining these entities, and other organisations legally capable of entering into a service contract with the European Commission. The notice does not explicitly restrict applicants by size (SME suitability indicator is false) but requires capability to deliver specialised economic modelling services.

Funding Type and Contract Nature:This is a public procurement for services (contract for services). The instrument is a negotiated procedure leading to a service contract; it is not a grant, loan, equity instrument or prize.

Consortium Requirement:The publication does not mandate a consortium. Submissions may be from a single legal entity or from a consortium / joint offer where members combine complementary expertise. The contracting documents to be published at the call stage will specify whether consortia need to be formalised by a lead partner and which supporting documentation is required.

Beneficiary Scope (Geographic Eligibility):The contracting authority is the European Commission (DG TRADE). The call is published on the EU Funding & Tenders Portal and therefore will follow the Commission rules on eligible countries for procurement participation; in practice this includes entities established in EU Member States and other countries listed in the Contract Notice when published (EEA, EU candidate countries or third countries may be eligible depending on publication specifics). The summary itself does not list specific country eligibility other than the Commission as lead authority.

Target Sectors and Expertise Required:Core thematic targets are international trade policy analysis and economic modelling. Required technical expertise will include GTAP model configuration and coding, computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling, econometric estimation of FDI-productivity elasticities, integration of econometric estimates into CGE model functional forms, scenario design and simulation, validation and testing, and documentation sufficient for Commission use and potential publication. Knowledge of trade policy, FDI channels, productivity measurement, and relevant data sources (GTAP database, bilateral FDI data, firm-level productivity datasets where applicable) is expected.

Project Stage and Deliverables:Expected stage: development and implementation of model extensions (applied research / model engineering). Deliverables will likely include a technical design note for the endogenisation mechanism, econometric estimation results for FDI-productivity elasticities, modified GTAP code and model documentation, worked examples / simulation runs demonstrating the mechanism under typical trade/FDI scenarios, validation results and final report. The contract duration is up to 12 months, indicating a compact development and delivery schedule.

Funding Amount:Estimated total contract value: not specified in the published summary. The notice is a publication of intent for a low or middle value negotiated procedure; therefore the contract budget will be published with the actual call documents. No firm funding range is provided in the public summary.

Application Type and Process:This is an open expression of interest followed by a negotiated procedure. Applicants must first submit an electronic expression of interest via the Funding & Tenders Portal (EU Login required) within the stated EOIs dates. After the EOIs deadline the contracting authority will publish the negotiated procedure call and invite selected candidates to negotiate and submit full offers. The planned indicative launch of the negotiated procedure is 05/10/2026.

Nature of Support:Successful applicants will receive a paid service contract from the European Commission. Support is monetary remuneration for delivered services; non-monetary services (e.g., access to Commission data or workshops) may also be part of contract management but the primary support is contractual payment.

Application Stages and Selection Process:At least two main stages are visible: (1) expression of interest (EOI) submission via the Portal, and (2) negotiated procedure leading to selection and award. The negotiated procedure itself may include additional phases (shortlisting, negotiation meetings, submission of final technical and financial offers, evaluation), so applicants should expect a multi-step selection process. The exact number of internal evaluation stages will be set out in the call documents.

Success Rates:No success rate or historical award rate is provided in the publication. As a Commission negotiated procedure for a single service contract, typically only a small number of candidates are invited to negotiate and one contract will be awarded; therefore the ex-ante probability of award per respondent is low and depends on the number of EOIs and shortlisted candidates.

Co-funding Requirement:No co-funding from applicants is requested or required in the summary. This is a standard service procurement where the Commission funds the contracted services; any requirement for co-financing would be explicit in the call documents, which are not included in this notice.

Templates and Submission Materials:At this publication stage no specific application templates are attached. The Funding & Tenders Portal will provide eSubmission templates and the negotiated procedure call dossier (Terms of Reference, model contract, selection and award criteria, required administrative documents) when the call is launched. Applicants should prepare: capability statements, technical proposals describing approach to endogenise productivity via econometric elasticities, CVs of key experts, proof of previous GTAP/CGE work, methodology and workplan, and a financial offer. EOIs are submitted electronically through the Portal; full tender templates will be those published with the call documents.

Explicitly mentioned countries and geographic markers

The notice is issued by the European Commission (DG TRADE) and uses Europe/Brussels time for milestones. No other countries are explicitly listed in the summary. Geographic scope for participation will be governed by the full procurement documents and standard EU procurement eligibility rules.

What the contracting authority likely expects — technical and organisational requirements

Required technical capabilities likely include:deep experience with GTAP modelling and the GTAP database; strong CGE modelling skills and capacity to modify model code; econometric expertise to estimate FDI-productivity elasticities using appropriate micro or macro datasets and robust identification strategies; ability to integrate econometric parameter estimates into CGE functional forms; software and computational capacity to run model scenarios; clear documentation and reproducible code practices; and prior experience delivering contracted advisory or modelling services to public authorities or international organisations.

1. 1Model development: design and implement mechanism to make FDI-driven productivity endogenous in GTAP.
2. 2Econometrics: estimate elasticities linking FDI flows/stock to productivity at relevant aggregation (sectoral, regional, firm-level as available).
3. 3Integration: adapt GTAP code, calibration and closure rules to incorporate estimated elasticities.
4. 4Validation and scenarios: run validation cases and policy scenarios to demonstrate behaviour.
5. 5Documentation and transfer: provide technical documentation, user guidance, and code deliverables for Commission use.

Risks and considerations for applicants

Applicants should note that this publication is an announcement of intent to launch a negotiated procedure (EXA reference). The final call may include tighter eligibility, selection and award criteria, a specified budget range, and additional contractual conditions. Applicants must ensure they have an EU Login account, are familiar with Funding & Tenders Portal eSubmission rules, and can mobilise qualified experts on a short timeline given the 12-month maximum contract duration.

For official details and to submit an expression of interest use the European Commission Funding & Tenders Portal opportunity page. The portal entry for this notice is the authoritative source for downloading the call documents when published and for managing questions and submissions. GTAP model extension on FDI and productivity ¹

Summary and final explanation

This opportunity is a European Commission DG TRADE planned procurement to commission expert services to extend the GTAP modelling framework so that productivity effects arising from Foreign Direct Investment become endogenous and driven by econometric estimates of FDI-productivity elasticities. It is published as an EXA notice indicating intent to launch a future negotiated procedure for a low or middle value contract. Interested parties with GTAP/CGE modelling capabilities, econometric expertise on FDI and productivity, and proven delivery track-record should prepare to submit an electronic expression of interest via the Funding & Tenders Portal within the stated EOI window. The final call documents will specify detailed eligibility, evaluation criteria, budget and contractual conditions. Applicants should monitor the Portal for the official call, prepare standard procurement documentation (administrative forms, technical proposal, CVs, workplan, financial offer) and ensure EU Login access ahead of deadlines.

Footnotes

1. 1This summary is based on the Published Planned Call for Tenders entry EC-TRADE/2026/LVP/0035-EXA on the EU Funding & Tenders Portal. The full procurement dossier (Terms of Reference, contract model, selection and award criteria) will be published with the negotiated procedure call. Access to submission and Q&A is through EU Login and the Portal.

This is a planned European Commission procurement notice, not yet the actual tender. The project concerns a services contract to implement a model mechanism that endogenises the productivity effects of Foreign Direct Investment using econometric estimates of the relevant elasticities¹.

Key opportunity facts

What the contract is about

The contract seeks analytical and modelling support for trade policy work. Its core objective is to extend the GTAP framework so that foreign direct investment has an endogenous effect on productivity, backed by econometric estimates of FDI productivity elasticities. In practical terms, the assignment is likely to involve economic modelling, empirical estimation, and policy oriented research.

Who can apply

The notice does not publish a full eligibility statement at this stage. Based on the subject matter and CPV code, the most relevant applicants are economic consultancies, research institutes, universities, modelling specialists, and other service providers with demonstrable expertise in trade economics, econometrics, computable general equilibrium modelling, and policy analysis. Participation begins with an expression of interest, and shortlisted candidates would normally be invited into the later negotiated procedure.

What applicants should know

• This is only a prior information style notice announcing the Commission's intention to launch a future negotiated procedure, so no full tender dossier is available yet.
• An EU Login account is required for electronic submission of the expression of interest.
• Submissions must be made exclusively through the indicated electronic address on the portal.
• The portal shows no public question and answer entries for this notice.
• The published duration is 12 months, which suggests a limited research and modelling assignment rather than a long term framework arrangement.

Assessment of suitability

This opportunity is best suited to organisations that can deliver specialised economic modelling and empirical research for EU trade policy. Strong prior work on GTAP, FDI spillovers, productivity estimation, or similar quantitative policy support will be especially relevant. Because the estimated contract value is not disclosed, applicants should focus first on confirming fit with the technical scope and on meeting the expression of interest deadline.

The authoritative portal notice is available here¹.

Footnotes

1. 1Official EU Funding and Tenders Portal notice for GTAP model extension on FDI and productivity: EU Funding and Tenders Portal.