The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts

The grant opportunity HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-04 is part of Horizon Europe's Climate, Energy, and Mobility cluster, focusing on advancing climate science and operationalizing attribution studies to improve the forecasting of extreme climate events and their societal impacts. Eligible applicants include universities, research institutes, NGOs, and public-private partnerships, especially those that include contributions from social sciences and humanities. The funding mechanism is a HORIZON Lump Sum Grant. A consortium of at least three partners from different countries is strongly encouraged, with an emphasis on international cooperation with the Global South. The geographic eligibility primarily includes EU member states and associated countries, with a specific focus on supporting Global South nations.

Target sectors encompass climate science, disaster risk reduction, and related areas such as health. The grant aims for projects in the research and development stage, focusing on improving methodologies, tools, and databases for climate event attribution and forecasting. Although specific funding amounts are not detailed, similar grants typically range from €1M to €5M. The application process is a single-stage submission, and successful proposals will receive lump-sum funding, covering 100% of eligible costs with no co-funding requirement.

The project outcomes aim to enhance understanding of anthropogenic climate change’s influence on extreme events, improve attribution methodologies, and operationalize this science for policy and disaster preparedness. The grant encourages interdisciplinary approaches and collaboration with existing initiatives like Destination Earth. The application deadline is September 24, 2025. Overall, this opportunity seeks to consolidate efforts in climate science and promote resilience through international partnerships, particularly in the Global South.

This is a Horizon Europe (HORIZON) funding opportunity under Call Cluster 5 Call 06-2025 (WP 2025) (HORIZON-CL5-2025-06). The topic is "The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts" with topic ID HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-04. It is a HORIZON Research and Innovation Action (HORIZON-RIA) with a HORIZON Lump Sum Grant [HORIZON-AG-LS] Model Grant Agreement (MGA).

The call is currently open for submission as a single-stage application. The opening date was May 6, 2025, and the deadline for submission is September 24, 2025, at 17:00:00 Brussels time.

The expected outcomes of the project are:

Advanced understanding of the causality between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes (including temperature extremes, heavy precipitation and pluvial floods, river floods, droughts, storms, as well as compound events), and their risks and impacts, including cascading impacts, on human systems and ecosystems.
Improved methodologies and tools of attribution of extreme climate- and weather-related events, and their impacts, to anthropogenic climate change.
Enhancement of existing or creation of new pilot global databases of extreme events, impacts and their attribution.
Advanced knowledge of how attribution science and forecasting can be operationalised for a range of policy purposes, including informing and improving preparedness, civil protection and humanitarian planning for future extreme and slow-onset events, post-disaster reconstruction, resilience and adaptation plans.

The scope of the funding opportunity includes the following:

Anthropogenic climate change and its influence on extreme weather events, as highlighted by the IPCC report.
Attribution science, which aims to determine the role of anthropogenic climate change relative to other drivers for specific extreme climate or weather events. Gaps in attribution science, including compound and cascading events, slow and fast onset events, statistical methods, and consideration of vulnerabilities and exposure.
The use of numerical modelling, AI and Machine Learning, counter-factual datasets using large ensembles and digital twins to increase the sample size of simulated rare events and explore decision-making and impact space.
Propagating uncertainties along the causality chain.

Actions should address the following aspects:

Advance attribution science through observations, models, and attribution methodologies applied to physical climate conditions and impacts.
Advance the understanding of the interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change, as well as the interplay between climate and non-climate drivers of impacts.
Advance methodologies to collect diverse in-situ and remote sensing observations to develop robust extreme event and impact databases.
Focus on extreme and slow-onset events and their interactions and impacts, locally implemented responses and their limits, with consideration of vulnerable regions.
Deliver enhanced methods to separate the effects of climate trends from trends in exposure and vulnerability.
Investigate how different model enhancements impact the realism and accuracy of modelled climate and weather extremes.
Improve forecasting of extreme climate- and weather-related events and their impacts, and contribute to the evolution of climate services.
Improve the knowledge of how to operationalise the attribution science and forecasting for informing future planning, including disaster preparedness, humanitarian aid operations, and adaptation plans.
Ensure policies and actions that follow from the attribution studies can integrate climate justice.
Promote transparency and openness when dealing with models, including assumptions, protocols, code, and data managed in compliance with the FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable).
Projects are encouraged to connect, coordinate, and participate in networking and joint activities. Collaboration with Destination Earth is encouraged. Clustering activities with other relevant ongoing projects should be envisaged.
Effective contribution of social sciences and humanities (SSH) disciplines and the involvement of SSH experts is required.
International cooperation is encouraged, particularly with the Global South, in the context of scientific capacity building, disaster risk reduction, and strengthening of climate resilience.

The general conditions include:

Admissibility Conditions: Proposal page limit and layout as described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes and Part B of the Application Form.
Eligible Countries as described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes. Some non-EU/non-Associated Countries have specific provisions for funding.
Other Eligible Conditions as described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.
Financial and operational capacity and exclusion as described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes.
Evaluation and award criteria, scoring, and thresholds as described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes.
Submission and evaluation processes as described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual.
Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement as described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes.
Legal and financial set-up of the grants: Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021. Open access to new modules, models, or tools developed must be ensured.

Specific conditions are described in the specific topic of the Work Programme.

Application and evaluation forms and model grant agreement (MGA) information:

Application form templates are available in the Submission System.
Standard application forms are available for HE RIA, IA, HE CSA, HE RI, and HE COFUND.
Evaluation form templates will be used with necessary adaptations.
Guidance is provided in the HE Programme Guide.
Model Grant Agreements (MGA) include HE MGA, HE Unit MGA, Lump Sum MGA, Operating Grants MGA, and Framework Partnership Agreement FPA.
Call-specific instructions, detailed budget table (HE LS), information on financial support to third parties (HE), information on clinical studies (HE), and guidance on lump sums are available.

Additional documents include:

HE Main Work Programme 2023–2025 (General Introduction, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, Research Infrastructures, Health, Culture, creativity and inclusive society, Civil Security for Society, Digital, Industry and Space, Climate, Energy and Mobility, Food, Bioeconomy, Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment, European Innovation Ecosystems (EIE), Widening participation and strengthening the European Research Area, Missions, General Annexes)
HE Programme Guide
HE Framework Programme 2021/695
HE Specific Programme Decision 2021/764
EU Financial Regulation 2024/2509
Decision authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme
Rules for Legal Entity Validation, LEAR Appointment and Financial Capacity Assessment
EU Grants AGA Annotated Model Grant Agreement
Funding & Tenders Portal Online Manual
Funding & Tenders Portal Terms and Conditions
Funding & Tenders Portal Privacy Statement

The budget overview for 2025 includes:

HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-01: HORIZON-RIA, 30,000,000 EUR, single-stage, indicative number of grants: 1
HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-02: HORIZON-RIA, 15,000,000 EUR, single-stage, indicative number of grants: 2
HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-03: HORIZON-RIA, 7,500,000 EUR, single-stage, indicative number of grants: 3
HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-04: HORIZON-RIA, 12,000,000 EUR, single-stage, indicative number of grants: 2
HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-06: HORIZON-RIA, 15,000,000 EUR, single-stage, indicative number of grants: 3
HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-07: HORIZON-CSA, 4,000,000 EUR, single-stage, indicative number of grants: 1
HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D2-07: HORIZON-COFUND, 56,000,000 EUR, single-stage, indicative number of grants: 1

There are 13 partner search announcements available.

To start the submission process, select the appropriate type of action and model grant agreement.

For help, consult the Online Manual, Horizon Europe Programme Guide, Funding & Tenders Portal FAQ, Research Enquiry Service, National Contact Points (NCPs), Enterprise Europe Network, IT Helpdesk, European IPR Helpdesk, CEN-CENELEC Research Helpdesk, ETSI Research Helpdesk, and Partner Search.

In summary, this Horizon Europe funding opportunity aims to advance the understanding and methodologies related to attributing extreme weather events to climate change. It encourages projects that combine observations, modelling, and AI to improve forecasting and inform policy, disaster preparedness, and adaptation plans, with a strong emphasis on transparency, international cooperation, and the inclusion of social sciences and humanities. The funding is provided as a lump sum, and successful projects are expected to contribute to open science practices. The call is open until September 24, 2025, and encourages collaboration with Destination Earth and other relevant projects.

Eligible Applicant Types: The eligible applicant types are not explicitly defined in the provided text. However, given the nature of Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Actions (RIA) and Coordination and Support Actions (CSA) and COFUND actions, eligible applicants typically include universities, research institutes, SMEs, large enterprises, non-profit organizations, and other legal entities capable of conducting research and innovation activities. The encouragement of international cooperation, particularly with the Global South, suggests that entities from low- to middle-income countries are also potentially eligible, provided they meet the general eligibility criteria.

Funding Type: The primary funding mechanism is a grant, specifically a HORIZON Lump Sum Grant. There are also HORIZON Programme Cofund Actions.

Consortium Requirement: The opportunity encourages consortia, as it mentions networking and joint activities. The text encourages clustering activities with other relevant ongoing projects. Partner search tools are mentioned, implying that multiple partners are expected. Therefore, a consortium is strongly encouraged, although the possibility of a single applicant cannot be ruled out completely.

Beneficiary Scope (Geographic Eligibility): The geographic eligibility includes EU member states, associated countries, and potentially non-EU/non-Associated Countries, especially those in the Global South, with specific provisions for funding their participation. The Horizon Europe List of Participating Countries on the EU Funding and Tenders Portal should be consulted for up-to-date information.

Target Sector: The program targets the climate, energy, and mobility sectors, with a specific focus on climate change attribution, extreme weather event forecasting, numerical modelling, AI and Machine Learning, water, air pollution, ecosystem status, land use, disaster risk reduction, and climate resilience. It also requires the effective contribution of social sciences and humanities (SSH).

Mentioned Countries: The text refers to the Global South as a region, and mentions non-EU and non-associated countries. No specific countries are named.

Project Stage: The expected maturity of the project is research, development, and demonstration. The call aims to improve methodologies, tools, and databases, and to operationalize attribution science and forecasting, suggesting a focus on advancing existing research and developing practical applications.

Funding Amount: The funding amounts vary depending on the specific topic within the call, ranging from EUR 4,000,000 for Coordination and Support Actions to EUR 56,000,000 for Programme Cofund Actions. For Research and Innovation Actions, the funding ranges from EUR 7,500,000 to EUR 30,000,000.

Application Type: The application type is an open call, with a single-stage submission process.

Nature of Support: The beneficiaries will receive money in the form of a lump sum grant.

Application Stages: The application process is single-stage.

Success Rates: The success rates are not explicitly stated, but the indicative number of grants for each topic provides some insight. For example, the HORIZON-CL5-2025-06-D1-01 topic, with a budget of EUR 30,000,000, indicates one grant will be awarded.

Co-funding Requirement: Co-funding is required for HORIZON-COFUND actions. For other actions, co-funding requirements are not explicitly mentioned, but applicants should refer to the specific conditions in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.

Summary: This Horizon Europe Cluster 5 call focuses on "The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts." It seeks to fund projects that advance the understanding of the causality between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather events, improve attribution methodologies, enhance global databases, and operationalize attribution science for policy purposes. The call encourages international cooperation, particularly with the Global South, and requires the effective contribution of social sciences and humanities. Funding is provided as lump sum grants, with varying amounts depending on the specific action type, and applications are submitted through a single-stage process. The call is structured around several topics, including Research and Innovation Actions and Coordination and Support Actions, each with its own budget and expected outcomes. Applicants are encouraged to form consortia and collaborate with existing projects and initiatives like Destination Earth. The overall goal is to improve preparedness, civil protection, and humanitarian planning in the face of increasing climate and weather extremes.