Advancing understanding, modelling and prediction of extreme events in a changing climate

This summary details the grant opportunity HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-07, focused on advancing the understanding, modeling, and prediction of extreme climate events in a changing climate. It is part of the Horizon Europe initiative, with an emphasis on climate science and disaster risk reduction.

Eligible applicants include research-performing organizations such as universities, research institutes, and private entities with relevant research capabilities. A consortium of multiple partners is required for submissions, emphasizing collaboration across disciplines and coordination with external initiatives like ESA's FutureEO programme.

The funding mechanism is a lump sum grant format, totaling €18 million with three expected grants of approximately €6 million each allotted for each project. The application process is single-stage, opening on November 17, 2026, and closing on March 4, 2027. Proposals must demonstrate innovative approaches using advanced modeling techniques, including Earth system models and artificial intelligence, to improve prediction and resilience strategies.

Geographical eligibility includes EU member states, associated countries, and select third nations, particularly encouraging collaboration with low- to middle-income countries for capacity building. The projects are expected to cover both research and early demonstration stages, enhancing current understanding of extreme weather and supporting EU climate adaptation strategies.

Ultimately, this grant aims to bolster European scientific leadership in climate resilience, equipping communities and institutions with the necessary tools to address and adapt to intensifying climate challenges. The opportunity highlights the significant importance of international cooperation, especially in addressing climate resilience in developing regions.

This is a Horizon Europe call, specifically HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-07, titled "Advancing understanding, modelling and prediction of extreme events in a changing climate". It falls under the CLIMATE call within the Horizon Europe Programme. The action type is HORIZON-RIA (Research and Innovation Actions), utilizing a HORIZON Lump Sum Grant [HORIZON-AG-LS] Model Grant Agreement. It is a forthcoming call with a single-stage deadline model. The planned opening date is 17 November 2026, and the deadline for submission is 04 March 2027, 17:00:00 Brussels time. The total budget for this topic is 18,000,000 EUR for the year 2027, and it is expected that around 3 grants will be awarded, with contributions of approximately 6,000,000 EUR per grant.

The expected outcomes of this call are: improved understanding of past and present extreme events in the context of climate change in Europe and globally, including the interaction between different hazards and their cumulative/cascading effects; enhanced seamless prediction and projection modelling and attribution capabilities for extreme events and their likelihood, to support preparedness, response, and resilience to climate change by EU, national, and regional actors; and up-to-date contributions towards latest climate science, risk assessments, adaptation strategies and policies, and improved early warning systems for single and multi-hazard events.

The scope of this call focuses on understanding and predicting extreme events and the interaction between different types of hazards, which is critical for building resilience and safeguarding communities in the face of intensifying climate change. Actions are expected to use multiple lines of evidence from a hierarchy of models (including high resolution Earth system models and digital twins) and data of past and recent climate to improve understanding of processes, pre-conditioning, and causality driving extreme events under climate change conditions, including anthropogenic factors and internal variability. Innovative modelling and analysis methods, including AI-based approaches, are encouraged to better predict, emulate, and reveal climate change related extreme events and capture their likelihood. Extreme events should be addressed in their broadest sense, encompassing isolated, compound, or cascading events affecting lives, livelihoods, ecosystems, socio-economic sectors, and infrastructures, from large-scale continental to local-scale phenomena. Actions should include quantitative intercomparisons, retrospective analyses, lessons learned, and case studies of recent emblematic and diverse extreme events, demonstrating progress in improved understanding, comprehensive integration of multiple lines of evidence, and seamless prediction and projection capabilities and skills. The work is expected to support the future European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) and contribute to the activities of the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change. Cooperation with global, EU, national, and regional actors in Disaster Risk Reduction and climate adaptation is encouraged, including integration into or interoperability with Copernicus, Destination Earth, and other relevant initiatives. International cooperation with low- to middle-income countries automatically eligible for Horizon Europe funding is also encouraged, especially for capacity building. Selected proposals may consider involving the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) for scientific advice and technical support. This topic is part of a coordination initiative between ESA and the European Commission on Earth System Science (ESSI) under the new Extreme-Events Flagship Cluster, requiring successful consortia to coordinate with projects selected under ESA's FutureEO programme.

This call contributes to the Destination "Advancing science for a fair transition to a climate-neutral and resilient society (2026-27)". The expected impacts of this destination include supporting climate action through advancing climate science, closing key knowledge gaps related to climate change, strengthening the European Research Area on climate change, and maximising synergies between mitigation and adaptation with other policy priorities.

General conditions for participation include admissibility conditions (proposal page limit and layout), eligible countries (described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes, with specific provisions for non-EU/non-Associated Countries), and other eligible conditions (use of Copernicus and/or Galileo/EGNOS if projects use satellite-based data, and potential involvement of the JRC). Financial and operational capacity and exclusion are described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes. Evaluation and award criteria, submission and evaluation processes, and the indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement are described in Annex D and Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual. Legal and financial set-up of the grants involve eligible costs taking the form of a lump sum, as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021.

Application and evaluation forms, model grant agreements, and additional documents are available in the Submission System and through links provided in the call documentation.

The budget overview provides information on the topic, budget, stages, opening date, deadline, contributions, and indicative number of grants for various HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1 topics.

Partner search announcements are available for those seeking partners to collaborate on this topic. The submission system is planned to be opened on the date stated on the topic header.

This funding opportunity aims to improve our understanding, modeling, and prediction of extreme weather events in the context of a changing climate. It seeks to fund research projects that can enhance our ability to predict these events, assess their risks, and develop strategies for adaptation and resilience. The projects should leverage advanced modeling techniques, including Earth system models and digital twins, and utilize data from various sources, including satellites. The ultimate goal is to provide decision-makers with the tools and knowledge they need to protect communities and infrastructure from the impacts of climate change. The call encourages collaboration among researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders from around the world, with a particular emphasis on supporting capacity building in low- to middle-income countries.

Eligible Applicant Types: The eligible applicant types are not explicitly stated but can be inferred to include entities capable of conducting research and innovation activities. This typically includes universities, research institutes, SMEs, large enterprises, and other organizations with relevant expertise. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) may participate as a member of the consortium selected for funding as a beneficiary with zero funding, or as an associated partner.

Funding Type: The primary funding mechanism is a grant, specifically a HORIZON Research and Innovation Action (HORIZON-RIA) and HORIZON Programme Cofund Actions (HORIZON-COFUND) using lump sum grants.

Consortium Requirement: The opportunity requires a consortium of multiple applicants. Successful consortia will be asked to coordinate with projects to be selected under ESA's FutureEO programme.

Beneficiary Scope (Geographic Eligibility): The geographic eligibility includes EU member states, associated countries, and potentially non-EU/non-associated countries, with specific provisions for funding participants from non-EU countries as detailed in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide. International cooperation with low- to middle-income countries automatically eligible for Horizon Europe funding is encouraged.

Target Sector: The program targets the climate sector, specifically focusing on advancing the understanding, modeling, and prediction of extreme events in a changing climate. It also touches on disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation.

Mentioned Countries: The opportunity mentions "low- to middle-income countries automatically eligible for Horizon Europe funding" and refers to the "Horizon Europe List of Participating Countries on EU Funding and Tenders Portal". No specific countries are named, but the focus is on international cooperation, particularly with countries eligible for Horizon Europe funding.

Project Stage: The expected maturity of the project is research and innovation actions, implying projects in the research, development, and validation stages.

Funding Amount: The funding amounts vary depending on the specific topic:
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-07: EUR 18,000,000 (around EUR 6,000,000 per grant, 3 grants)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-08: EUR 14,000,000 (around EUR 7,000,000 per grant, 2 grants)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-09: EUR 9,000,000 (around EUR 3,000,000 per grant, 3 grants)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-10: EUR 18,000,000 (EUR 5,000,000 to EUR 6,000,000 per grant, 3 grants)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-11: EUR 15,000,000 (around EUR 15,000,000 per grant, 1 grant)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-12: EUR 25,000,000 (around EUR 5,000,000 per grant, 5 grants)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-13: EUR 24,000,000 (around EUR 4,000,000 per grant, 6 grants)

Application Type: The application type is an open call with a single-stage submission process.

Nature of Support: Beneficiaries will receive money in the form of a lump sum grant.

Application Stages: The application process involves a single stage.

Success Rates: The success rates are not explicitly mentioned, but the indicative number of grants for each topic provides some insight into the potential success rate.

Co-funding Requirement: Co-funding is required for HORIZON-COFUND actions.

Summary: This Horizon Europe call, under the CLIMATE program, aims to improve the understanding, modeling, and prediction of extreme climate events to enhance resilience and preparedness. It seeks to support research and innovation actions that contribute to climate science, risk assessments, and adaptation strategies. The call encourages collaboration among global, EU, national, and regional actors, including those in low- to middle-income countries. The funding is provided as lump sum grants, and the application process involves a single stage. The call is structured around several specific topics, each with its own budget and expected outcomes, focusing on different aspects of climate research and adaptation. The call also emphasizes the use of satellite data and coordination with other European initiatives like Copernicus and Destination Earth.