Next generation scenarios for informing climate and sustainability transitions
Overview
Eligible applicants include research organizations, universities, institutes, and other legal entities from EU member states and low to lower-middle-income countries, as international cooperation is mandatory. A consortium with at least three independent entities from different qualifying countries is required, emphasizing collaboration particularly with major greenhouse gas emitting nations like China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia.
The funded projects will concentrated on three main priority areas: first, integrating physical climate impacts and adaptation strategies into mitigation pathways; second, improving scenario frameworks to enhance their applicability across various socio-economic contexts; and third, enhancing the representation of policies in scenarios to better align modeled pathways with real-world actions. Overall, the objective is to deepen scientific understanding and enhance the efficacy of climate action through improved decision-support tools.
The funding mechanism operates through lump sum grants, simplifying the administrative burden associated with traditional reimbursement models. Successful applicants will be obliged to adhere to open science commitments, ensuring that all resources developed during the projects, including models, data, and code, are accessible to the public.
Despite the absence of explicitly stated success rates, competitive selection will balance grant allocations across the specified priority areas. Co-funding is not strictly required, but it may be necessary based on the project budget structure. The overarching aim of this call is to contribute significant advancements in climate science, enhancing the capacity for effective climate actions and fostering equity in climate-related research and policy-making.
Detail
The expected outcomes of the projects are:
Strengthened collaboration and integration across research communities, better capturing interactions and trade-offs between various climate domains as well as between climate and non-climate objectives, such as biodiversity or pollution related. This will support more comprehensive and consistent evaluations, benefiting key global assessments (IPCC, IPBES) and improving their impact on European and global policies (European Green Deal, UNFCCC, CBD).
More relevant, robust and actionable scenarios that inform optimal policy interventions, serving the needs and supporting decision-making of diverse end-users at various spatial scales, from policymakers and planning authorities to businesses and civil society.
More globally representative, diverse, inclusive, transparent, widely accepted and better communicated scenarios that support climate-resilient development pathways and foster global consensus on climate action.
The scope of this call is to advance climate scenarios to inform low-emission climate-resilient pathways, while also accounting for other critical policy priorities, such as environmental protection. Actions should improve Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or propose alternative approaches to address key challenges and gaps in current climate scenario frameworks. They should extend the scope of scenarios beyond the 21st century, enlarge the future possibility space with more diverse narratives and drivers (e.g. post-growth), more explicit consideration of equity, justice, geopolitics and attention to inclusivity.
Proposals are expected to address only one of the following priority areas:
Area A: Integration of climate impacts and adaptation dimension: Develop approaches to better integrate physical climate impacts, adaptation, its costs and limits into mitigation pathways. This includes exploring how climate impacts including extremes and biophysical feedbacks affect mitigation strategies, testing the resilience of low-emission pathways to climate impacts, and how adaptation interacts with mitigation.
Area B: Improved scenario frameworks: Update baseline scenarios and expand scenario narratives to better address multi-scale, cross-sectoral issues and the needs of downstream assessments. Scenarios should capture a wider range of plausible futures to reflect changing socio-economic and environmental conditions (including a broader range of economic growth assumptions), technological advancements, evolving policy landscape and disruptive events. This includes extension of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario framework, or development of alternatives, to enhance regional and local applicability, to support adaptation pathway development, and to improve relevance beyond the climate research community - notably for biodiversity and SDGs.
Area C: Improved policy representation: Enhance the granularity and diversity of policy (both mitigation and adaptation) representation in scenarios with more focus on implementation aspects to bridge the gap between modelled pathways and real-world action. Address social, geopolitical, economic and technological factors, considering interactions between industrial, trade, climate and other environmental policies (e.g. air pollution). Examine implications for competitiveness, employment, investment flows, energy security, supply chain resilience, technological innovation, international spillovers, as well as well-being. Investigate implementation and impact of recent commitments and initiatives (e.g. fossil fuel phase-out, Global Methane Pledge) and the impact of rising geopolitical tensions on their implementation, and mitigation action overall.
Actions should promote transdisciplinary collaboration and co-design with stakeholders to integrate diverse perspectives and needs. They should develop and test new approaches, including communication, to improve uptake of results by various audiences. The topic therefore requires inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, to produce meaningful and significant effects to enhance the societal impact of related research activities.
All projects funded from this topic are strongly encouraged to collaborate and envisage clustering activities together and with other relevant projects in and outside of Horizon Europe. They should contribute to the organisation of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Platform conferences to foster dialogue between scientists, policymakers and other stakeholders. They should also support inclusive and transparent model intercomparison exercises, aligning with the efforts of the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum.
International cooperation is generally encouraged and specifically required with low, and lower/upper-middle-income countries – particularly major GHG emitters such as China (contributing to the EU-China Climate Change and Biodiversity (CCB) flagship initiative), India, Brazil and Indonesia. It should ensure diverse, globally representative scenario space and, where appropriate, foster capacity development.
This Destination contributes directly to the Strategic Plan’s Key Strategic Orientations ‘Green transition’, ‘Digital transition’ and ‘A more resilient, competitive, inclusive and democratic Europe’. In line with the Strategic Plan, the overall expected impact of this Destination is to contribute to the “Advancing science for a transition to a climate-neutral and resilient society”.
Expected impacts include:
Supporting climate action (both mitigation and adaptation) in Europe and globally, through advancing climate science and the knowledge base underpinning actionable solutions, to accelerate the transition to a climate-neutral, climate-resilient and prosperous society.
Closing key knowledge gaps related to climate change, thereby contributing substantially to key European and international assessments such as IPCC, IPBES, EUCRA, and other initiatives such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the World Climate Research Programme.
Strengthening the European Research Area on climate change by boosting scientific excellence and capacity in an inclusive manner across the participating countries.
Maximising synergies between mitigation and adaptation and with other policy priorities such as biodiversity and ecosystem preservation and restoration, disaster-preparedness, digitalisation, circular economy, prosperity and competitiveness, strategic autonomy, security and resilience, just transition, and the Sustainable Development Goals by exploring co-benefits, trade-offs and potential unintended consequences of climate strategies and policy interventions.
Important components of climate science research are also addressed in other Clusters -particularly Cluster 6 – which addresses the climate-ocean-cryosphere-polar nexus and the climate-energy-land-food-water-biodiversity nexus. Efforts to foster synergies and complementarities across these research activities are strongly encouraged.
General conditions for admissibility include proposal page limits and layout as described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes and Part B of the Application Form. Eligible countries are described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.
Other eligible conditions include the use of Copernicus and/or Galileo/EGNOS for projects using satellite-based earth observation, positioning, navigation and/or related timing data and services. The consortium must include as beneficiary or associated partner at least three independent legal entities established in three different low or lower/upper-middle-income countries.
Financial and operational capacity and exclusion are described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes.
Evaluation and award criteria, scoring and thresholds are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes. To ensure a balanced portfolio covering different research areas (A, B and C), grants will be awarded to applications not only in order of ranking but also to at least two highest ranked applications in each area, provided that the corresponding applications attain all thresholds.
Submission and evaluation processes are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual. The indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement is described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes.
Legal and financial set-up of the grants include open access to any new modules, models or tools developed from scratch or substantially improved with the use of EU funding under the action must be ensured through documentation, availability of model code and input data developed under the action. Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme.
Application form templates are available in the Submission System. Evaluation form templates will be used with the necessary adaptations. Guidance is provided in the HE Programme Guide. Model Grant Agreements (MGA) include HE MGA, HE Unit MGA, Lump Sum MGA, Operating Grants MGA, and Framework Partnership Agreement FPA. Call-specific instructions, a detailed budget table (HE LS), and guidance on lump sums are also available.
Additional documents include the HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027, the HE Programme Guide, the HE Framework Programme 2021/695, the HE Specific Programme Decision 2021/764, the EU Financial Regulation 2024/2509, the Decision authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme, Rules for Legal Entity Validation, LEAR Appointment and Financial Capacity Assessment, and the EU Grants AGA — Annotated Model Grant Agreement.
The budget overview for 2027 includes several topics:
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-07 - HORIZON-RIA: EUR 18,000,000, indicative number of grants: 3, contribution per grant around EUR 6,000,000
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-08 - HORIZON-RIA: EUR 14,000,000, indicative number of grants: 2, contribution per grant around EUR 7,000,000
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-09 - HORIZON-RIA: EUR 9,000,000, indicative number of grants: 3, contribution per grant around EUR 3,000,000
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-10 - HORIZON-RIA: EUR 18,000,000, indicative number of grants: 3, contribution per grant between EUR 5,000,000 and EUR 6,000,000
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-11 - HORIZON-COFUND: EUR 15,000,000, indicative number of grants: 1, contribution per grant around EUR 15,000,000
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-12 - HORIZON-RIA: EUR 25,000,000, indicative number of grants: 5, contribution per grant around EUR 5,000,000
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-13 - HORIZON-RIA: EUR 24,000,000, indicative number of grants: 6, contribution per grant around EUR 4,000,000
There are 16 partner search announcements available.
This Horizon Europe call focuses on developing next-generation climate scenarios to better inform climate and sustainability transitions. It seeks to improve climate models, expand scenario narratives, and enhance policy representation in these models. The goal is to create more relevant, robust, and actionable scenarios that can support decision-making at various levels, from policymakers to businesses, and foster global consensus on climate action. The call encourages international cooperation, particularly with low and middle-income countries, and promotes open science practices. Projects should address one of three priority areas: integrating climate impacts and adaptation, improving scenario frameworks, or enhancing policy representation. Ultimately, this initiative aims to advance climate science and provide a stronger knowledge base for effective climate action.
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Breakdown
Funding Type: The primary funding mechanism is a grant, specifically a HORIZON Lump Sum Grant. There are also HORIZON Programme Cofund Actions.
Consortium Requirement: A consortium is required. Specifically, the consortium must include as beneficiary or associated partner at least three independent legal entities established in three different low or lower/upper-middle-income countries.
Beneficiary Scope (Geographic Eligibility): While the general Horizon Europe rules apply, this opportunity specifically targets international cooperation with low and lower/upper-middle-income countries.
Target Sector: The program targets climate, energy, and mobility, with a focus on advancing climate science, developing climate scenarios, and informing climate and sustainability transitions. It also touches on biodiversity, pollution, and sustainable development goals.
Mentioned Countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, EU, non-EU countries, non-associated countries, low-income countries, lower-middle-income countries, upper-middle-income countries.
Project Stage: The expected maturity of the project is research and innovation actions, suggesting projects in the research, development, and validation stages.
Funding Amount: The funding amounts vary by topic:
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-07: EUR 18,000,000 (Indicative grant amount around EUR 6,000,000)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-08: EUR 14,000,000 (Indicative grant amount around EUR 7,000,000)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-09: EUR 9,000,000 (Indicative grant amount around EUR 3,000,000)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-10: EUR 18,000,000 (Indicative grant amount EUR 5,000,000 to EUR 6,000,000)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-11: EUR 15,000,000 (Indicative grant amount around EUR 15,000,000)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-12: EUR 25,000,000 (Indicative grant amount around EUR 5,000,000)
HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-13: EUR 24,000,000 (Indicative grant amount around EUR 4,000,000)
Application Type: The application type is an open call with a single-stage submission process.
Nature of Support: Beneficiaries will receive money in the form of a lump sum grant.
Application Stages: The application process is a single-stage process.
Success Rates: The success rates are not explicitly mentioned, but the indicative number of grants for each topic provides some insight into the potential success rate, which would depend on the number of applications received.
Co-funding Requirement: For HORIZON-RIA actions, co-funding is not explicitly mentioned, suggesting that 100% funding is possible. HORIZON-COFUND actions, by their nature, imply a co-funding requirement, where the EU funding is blended with other sources.
Summary:
This Horizon Europe call, under the CLIMATE destination, focuses on "Next generation scenarios for informing climate and sustainability transitions." It aims to improve climate scenarios and models to better inform policy and decision-making related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. The call is structured around several specific topics (HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-07 to HORIZON-CL5-2027-01-D1-13), each with its own budget and indicative grant amount. The call encourages international cooperation, particularly with low and lower/upper-middle-income countries, and requires consortia to include entities from at least three of these countries. Projects should address key challenges in climate scenario frameworks, such as integrating climate impacts, improving scenario narratives, and enhancing policy representation. The funding is provided as a lump sum grant, and the application process involves a single-stage submission. The call is relevant for a wide range of organizations involved in climate research, modeling, and policy, including universities, research institutions, and governmental and non-governmental organizations. The overall goal is to advance climate science and support the transition to a climate-neutral and resilient society.
Short Summary
Impact Advance climate scenario science and modeling frameworks to inform global, national, and local climate action, supporting the transition to a climate-neutral and resilient society. | Impact | Advance climate scenario science and modeling frameworks to inform global, national, and local climate action, supporting the transition to a climate-neutral and resilient society. |
Applicant Research organizations, universities, and legal entities capable of conducting research and innovation in climate science and policy. | Applicant | Research organizations, universities, and legal entities capable of conducting research and innovation in climate science and policy. |
Developments Projects focused on climate science, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and integrated assessment models to improve climate scenarios and policy representation. | Developments | Projects focused on climate science, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and integrated assessment models to improve climate scenarios and policy representation. |
Applicant Type Research organizations, universities, and other legal entities from EU member states and low and lower-middle-income countries. | Applicant Type | Research organizations, universities, and other legal entities from EU member states and low and lower-middle-income countries. |
Consortium Consortium required, with at least three independent legal entities from three different low or lower/upper-middle-income countries. | Consortium | Consortium required, with at least three independent legal entities from three different low or lower/upper-middle-income countries. |
Funding Amount €4,000,000 per project, with approximately 6 grants expected to be awarded, totaling €24,000,000. | Funding Amount | €4,000,000 per project, with approximately 6 grants expected to be awarded, totaling €24,000,000. |
Countries EU member states, associated countries, and mandatory participation from low and lower-middle-income countries, particularly China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia due to their status as major greenhouse gas emitters. | Countries | EU member states, associated countries, and mandatory participation from low and lower-middle-income countries, particularly China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia due to their status as major greenhouse gas emitters. |
Industry Climate, energy, and sustainability transitions. | Industry | Climate, energy, and sustainability transitions. |
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