Literature review and empirical analyses of AI exposure and productivity - 250001/7796

The European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound) has published an open procurement (EUROFOUND/2026/OP/0006, internal ref. 250001/7796) for a direct service contract worth an estimated €110,000 to harmonise occupational AI exposure measures, build a composite exposure score and capability-adoption gap, conduct empirical analyses of impacts on employment, wages and working conditions using EU datasets, and deliver a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of AI productivity effects. The contract duration is up to 16 months with deliverables including methodological reports, datasets, an analytical report and policy briefs, and requires strict data protection compliance and EU/EEA localisation of personal data. Participation is open to entities within the scope of the EU Treaties and selected third-country participants where applicable, with electronic submission only via the EU Funding & Tenders Portal eSubmission system. The deadline for receipt of tenders is 08 June 2026 at 14:00 Dublin time and clarifications must be submitted by 27 May 2026 at 23:59 Dublin time.

Call: Literature review and empirical analyses of AI exposure and productivity (EUROFOUND/2026/OP/0006)

What it funds

Direct contract (open procedure) to deliver a literature review, harmonisation of existing occupational AI exposure measures, construction of a composite exposure score and capability-adoption gap, empirical analysis of effects on employment, wages and working conditions, and a systematic review with meta-analysis of AI productivity effects.

Estimated value:Maximum budget €110,000; contract duration up to 16 months. Payment schedule indicative: interim payments (30% and 40%) and final balance (30%).

Who can apply

Economic operators established within the EEA (single applicants or joint tenders). Research organisations, consultancies and SMEs with relevant labour‑market and quantitative expertise are eligible. Subcontracting and relying on other entities are permitted subject to declaration and documentation.

Key administrative facts

1. 1Submission method: electronic via the EU Funding & Tenders Portal (EU Login and PIC required) ¹
2. 2Deadline for receipt of tenders: 08/06/2026 14:00 Europe/Dublin
3. 3Public opening of tenders: 09/06/2026 10:30 Europe/Dublin
4. 4Award method: best price-quality ratio (quality and price weighted, minimum quality threshold applies)
5. 5Main CPV: 79315000 Social research services

Tender documentation includes Invitation to Tender, Tender Specifications, Standard Reply Form and Draft Service Contract; all published in English. Proposals must meet the technical, selection and data protection requirements described in the Tender Specifications.

Core tasks (high level):1) Harmonise and ensemble existing AI occupational exposure scores and produce EU-compatible composite scores (automation vs augmentation) and capability-adoption gap; 2) Empirical analysis using LFS, EWCS and AIM-Work to assess impacts on employment, wages and job quality; 3) Systematic review and meta-analysis of AI productivity effects.

Footnotes

1. 1Procurement documents and electronic submission available on the Funding & Tenders Portal Funding & Tenders Portal.

Key facts

Procuring authority:European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound). Procedure: Open procedure (call for tenders EUROPFOUND/2026/OP/0006 / TED ref. 297988-2026). Contract type: direct service contract (services – social research). Maximum overall budget (estimated total value): €110,000. Maximum contract duration: 16 months. Submission method: electronic via the EU Funding & Tenders Portal eSubmission. Language of procurement documents: English. Award method: best price-quality ratio (price weight 40, quality weight 60). Public opening of tenders: 09/06/2026 10:30 (Europe/Dublin). Deadline for receipt of tenders: 08/06/2026 14:00 (Europe/Dublin).

Documents published and available

Tender dossier published on the Funding & Tenders Portal contains:Part A Invitation to Tender (Invitation letter), Part B Tender Specifications (detailed technical specifications and timetable), Part C Standard Reply Form (mandatory templates and declarations), Part D Draft Service Contract (special and general conditions and appendix). All parts published 30/04/2026 (version 1). Procurement documents must be consulted and tenders submitted via the Portal F&T Portal ¹.

Primary objective:To deliver Work Package 1 of an EU‑commissioned project: harmonise existing occupational AI exposure measures, construct a composite exposure score (automation vs augmentation) at ISCO 4-digit and NACE 3-digit levels, build a capability‑adoption gap measure using EWCS, AIM-Work and Eurostat ICT survey adoption data, conduct empirical analyses of AI exposure effects on employment, wages and working conditions using LFS and EWCS, and perform a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of AI productivity effects.

Eligibility and application

The procurement is open to any natural or legal persons falling within the scope of the EU Treaties, international organisations and entities established in third countries that have a special procurement agreement with the EU where applicable. Participation is on equal terms provided exclusion criteria are not met and selection criteria satisfied as per Tender Specifications and Standard Reply Form (Part C). Subcontracting and joint tenders are explicitly allowed under detailed rules (identified subcontractors > 10% share must be declared and provide declaration of intent).

Eligible Applicant Types:Startups (if they meet selection criteria), SMEs, large enterprises, universities and research institutes, policy research consultancies, nonprofit research bodies, independent consultants (as team members), governmental bodies and international organisations where legally permitted. Joint ventures or consortia are permitted; subcontractors and entities whose capacity is relied upon must be declared as required.

Funding Type:Procurement / service contract (direct contract) financed by the project budget. This is a paid contract for services (not a grant, loan or equity instrument).

Consortium Requirement:Single tenderer allowed or joint tender (consortium). If joint tender, a group leader must be appointed and an Agreement/Power of Attorney signed by all members (template provided in Part C). Consortium members are jointly and severally liable; leader acts as single point of contact and for invoicing unless otherwise indicated in the consortium agreement.

Beneficiary Scope (Geographic Eligibility):Applicants established in the EU and in the European Economic Area (EEA) are eligible. The tender text states participation is open to entities falling within the scope of the Treaties and to international organisations; entities from third countries with special procurement agreements may participate under the conditions of those agreements. Data-processing operations must be localised within the EU/EEA per data protection minimum requirements.

Target Sector / Thematic Focus:Social research on labour markets and AI: labour economics, labour market datasets, job quality, AI exposure scoring, occupational/sectoral analysis, productivity meta-analysis. Sectors covered will be all NACE sectors as exposure and adoption analyses require cross-sectoral coverage.

Mentioned Countries:The procurement is issued by Eurofound (Dublin, Ireland). The project targets EU-27 and other European countries covered by EWCS and related datasets (EWCS covers EU Member States plus Norway, Switzerland and Western Balkan countries in the Eurofound surveys). The call explicitly references EU-27 in background and requires EU-level applicability.

Project Stage / Expected maturity:Advanced research and analysis: combined synthesis and empirical analysis (development, validation, demonstration). The contractor must have proven experience in labour economics, advanced quantitative methods (ensemble modelling, LASSO recalibration, panel/time-series, ARIMA), meta-analysis and production of policy reports.

Funding Amount (contract budget):Estimated total budget for the contract: €110,000 (exclusive of VAT). The tender indicates Eurofound may reject tenders if price exceeds budget and may reject abnormally low tenders.

Call mechanics, deadlines and submission

Submission is electronic only via the EU Funding & Tenders Portal eSubmission system. A Participant Identification Code (PIC) and EU Login are required. Tenders must comply with all forms in Part C and include legal, financial and technical documentation. EU two-step login 2FA applies per Portal rules. Questions must be submitted via the Portal Q&A; contracting authority is not bound to reply to questions received after 27/05/2026 23:59 (Dublin time).

1. 1Call published: TED and F&T Portal (TED ref. 297988-2026; F&T tender ID 9529e2ef-...).
2. 2Deadline for clarifications/questions: 27/05/2026 23:59 (Europe/Dublin).
3. 3Deadline for receipt of tenders: 08/06/2026 14:00 (Europe/Dublin).
4. 4Public opening: 09/06/2026 10:30 (Europe/Dublin).
5. 5Notification of evaluation results (planned): 14/07/2026; Contract signature planned 21/07/2026.

What the contract requires (technical and team requirements)

Tenderers must submit a Technical Offer covering all tasks in the Tender Specifications. Minimum technical and team requirements are defined in Part B and Part C and are mandatory for selection and evaluation.

1. 1Core technical capacities: proven experience in labour economics and labour market research, occupational AI exposure measurement, experience with EU-wide datasets (LFS, EWCS, AIM‑Work), advanced quantitative/statistical methods (ensemble modelling, meta-analysis, regression, ARIMA/time-series).
2. 2Documentary evidence: references for two projects in the last 3 years (each >= €50,000), at least one demonstrating advanced data analysis; short description of economic activities; a 10+ page report in English produced in the last 2 years for verification of drafting capacity.
3. 3Team composition and CVs: Project Manager (min 5 years project management, experience with team of at least 4 and projects of at least €50,000 and EU coverage), Senior Expert in Labour Economics (PhD or equivalent, min 7 years experience, at least 3 years on occupational AI exposure and EU datasets), two Experts in Quantitative Labour Market Analysis (each min 5 years, master’s or above, experience with LFS, EWCS, AIM‑Work, Eurostat ICT survey; regression, panel and time-series methods), plus language quality check resource (C1 English). CVs must specify roles and availability.
4. 4Data protection compliance: tenderers must complete the Data Protection Due Diligence Checklist (Annex I to Part C) and meet minimum technical and organisational measures; personal data processing must be localised to EU/EEA and contractor must notify Eurofound of any personal data breaches within 48 hours.
5. 5Deliverables and formats: inception report, methodology report (Task 1) draft & final, datasets in Stata (.dta) or .csv with full documentation, capability-adoption gap dataset, analytical report (Task 2) (max 40,000 words, Eurofound template), effect-size database and meta-analysis report (Task 3), concise policy briefs. Reports must follow Eurofound templates and style guide and include specified abstracts and executive summaries.

Award criteria and scoring

Tenders will be evaluated on quality (60 points total) and management/team (20 points) and quality control/documentation (10 points). The minimum quality threshold is 70 points out of 100. Final ranking uses best price-quality ratio with weights price 40% and quality 60%.

1. 1Quality and methodology (60 points): Task 1 methodology and ensemble construction (20), Task 2 empirical strategy and time series/within-occupation approach (20), Task 3 systematic review and meta-analysis approach (20).
2. 2Organisation and project management (20 points): workplan, sequencing, risk mitigation (10+10).
3. 3Team composition and allocation (10 points): clarity and allocation of responsibilities.
4. 4Quality control and reproducibility (10 points): internal review, documentation, datasets structured for reuse (5+5).

Application Type:Open call for tenders (one-off, single deadline). Submission exclusively electronic via the Funding & Tenders Portal eSubmission; all required templates and standard forms are in Part C (Standard Reply Form) and Part B (Tender Specifications).

Nature of Support:Monetary payment to a contractor under a service contract. This is a fee-for-service procurement; beneficiaries receive contract remuneration, not grants or vouchers.

Application Stages:Single-stage submission of full tender via eSubmission. Evaluation includes administrative, exclusion and selection checks, quality scoring and price-quality ranking. Eurofound may request supporting documents during evaluation (evidence of financials, declarations, DPO/registers, etc.).

Success Rates:Not published in the tender. As an open competitive procurement with limited budget (€110,000) and specialized technical requirements, expected competitive pressure is moderate to high; success rate depends on number and quality of tenders received. Eurofound may reject all tenders if none meet requirements.

Co-funding Requirement:No co-funding requirement is specified. The contract is funded from Eurofound/Commission project funds and the price must be a fixed amount covering all charges (travel and subsistence included).

Templates and mandatory forms (what you must submit)

The procurement dossier contains mandatory templates and forms which must be completed and submitted with the tender. These are part of Part C Standard Reply Form and include identification, declarations and legal/financial forms. Failure to complete mandatory templates will result in rejection for non-compliance.

1. 1Part C Standard Reply Form – Identification of tenderer, joint tender questionnaire, Agreement/Power of Attorney (consortia), Subcontractor’s Declaration of Intent, Commitment letter by entities on whose capacity the tenderer relies, Legal Entity & Financial Identification Form (Business Partner Form).
2. 2Declaration on Honour on exclusion criteria and selection criteria (signed by each involved entity and identified subcontractors >10%).
3. 3Data Protection Due Diligence Checklist (Annex I to Part C) – must be answered in full; a negative answer to minimum DP questions may lead to rejection.
4. 4Technical Offer: methodology, workplan, CVs (recommended Europass format), examples of reports in English (10+ pages), project references (2 projects in last 3 years each >= €50,000).
5. 5Financial Offer: cost table using template in Part C (breakdown by inception, tasks 1–3 and policy outputs), expressed in euros, fixed, VAT excluded.
6. 6IPR declarations: Declaration on the list of pre-existing rights (to be provided with final deliverables or earlier if requested).

Templates structure and guidance highlights:Part C contains a Standard Reply Form with a Table of Contents listing: 1. Identification of Tenderer (legal, contact, PIC), 1.1 joint tender/subcontracting questionnaire, 1.2 Agreement/Power of attorney template, 1.3 Subcontractor declaration template, 1.4 Commitment letter template, 1.5 Legal Entity & Financial Identification Form; 2. Verification of Non-Exclusion (Declaration on Honour); 2.2 Economic & financial capacity evidence; 2.3 Technical & professional capacity evidence (references, CVs); 3. Technical Offer (methodology, work plan, deliverable schedule); 4. Financial Offer (cost table template); 5. IPR statements and Declaration on list of pre-existing rights. Use the exact forms and signatures required (qualified electronic signature recommended or handwritten signature on printed and scanned forms where QES not available).

Selection checklist for applicants (practical)

1. 1Register organisation in Participant Register and obtain PIC; ensure EU Login access and 2-factor authentication before submission.
2. 2Download Parts A–D and all annexes from the Funding & Tenders Portal; review Tender Specifications (Part B) in depth.
3. 3Complete Standard Reply Form (Part C) fully for each involved entity (each consortium member and identified subcontractor >10% share).
4. 4Prepare Technical Offer: methodology for Task 1 (selection and ensemble construction), Task 2 empirical approaches (LFS, EWCS, within-occupation adjustment, ARIMA), Task 3 review & meta-analysis protocol, detailed workplan and risk mitigation.
5. 5Prepare required evidence: two project references (≥€50K each), English report example (≥10 pages), CVs for required key experts (Europass recommended), Data Protection Due Diligence Checklist and any security evidence (ISO certifications if held).
6. 6Prepare Financial Offer using Part C cost table; quote in euros, fixed price, travel/subsistence included; do not include VAT. Ensure total ≤ €110,000 or accept that Eurofound may reject if over budget.
7. 7Submit electronically via eSubmission before the deadline and retain submission receipt (timestamp) as proof. Late submissions are rejected.

Eurofound emphasises reproducibility and documentation:datasets must be provided in .dta or .csv formats with full codebooks and meta-data to allow replication and future reuse. All methodological steps (ESCO-O*NET crosswalk handling, LASSO ensemble weighting, sensitivity analyses, meta-analysis coding) must be documented in the methodology report.

Risks, restrictions and mandatory conditions

1. 1Data protection: Processing of personal data must comply with Regulation (EU) 2018/1725; data localisation in EU/EEA is mandatory for personal data processed on behalf of Eurofound; subcontractors who act as data subprocessors must be declared and included in the DP checklist.
2. 2Exclusion and restrictive measures: any involved entity subject to EU restrictive measures or exclusion grounds will be rejected; the contracting authority may verify via EDES.
3. 3Pre-existing rights: any pre-existing materials incorporated into results must be declared and evidence of rights/licences provided; Eurofound acquires ownership of results and broad exploitation rights as per the Draft Contract Part D.
4. 4Budget and price: quoted price must be fixed and include travel and subsistence; Eurofound reserves the right to reject tenders exceeding budget or abnormally low tenders that raise concerns about compliance with environmental, social and labour obligations.

Summary — what is this opportunity about and how to explain it

This is a specialist procurement for research services commissioned by Eurofound to deliver Work Package 1 of a Commission-backed project on AI, productivity and labour markets. The contractor will harmonise and combine existing occupational AI exposure measures into a transparent, documented composite indicator (separating automation and augmentation), create a capability‑adoption gap metric by linking exposure to observed adoption in EWCS, AIM-Work and Eurostat ICT data, conduct empirical analyses of the exposure and adoption metrics using LFS and EWCS to assess impacts on employment, wages and job quality, and produce a systematic literature review and meta-analysis quantifying AI’s productivity effects. The activity requires a multi-disciplinary team with demonstrated expertise in labour economics, EU microdata, advanced quantitative methods (ensemble modelling, panel/time‑series), systematic review and meta-analysis, and a track record of producing policy-relevant reports. The contract is small to medium in value (€110K), single‑award, time‑bounded (max 16 months) and requires strict data protection and IPR compliance. Applicants should submit a full technical and financial proposal via the F&T Portal eSubmission, using the mandatory Part C templates and ensuring all declarations are completed. Successful offers will combine rigorous methodology, reproducible data deliverables, clear project management and strong, demonstrable team experience in the specified areas.

Footnotes

1. 1Official tender documents and electronic submission are hosted on the EU Funding & Tenders Portal: ec.europa.eu

Opportunity Overview

This is a direct service contract tender issued by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound), a tripartite EU Agency. The contract seeks to conduct comprehensive research on how artificial intelligence exposure affects employment, wages, working conditions, and productivity across the European Union. The work is part of a broader 36-month project examining AI's implications for European labour markets, conducted under a Service Level Agreement between the European Commission and Eurofound.

Contract Details

Procedure Identifier:EUROFOUND/2026/OP/0006

Internal Reference Number:250001/7796

TED Reference:84/2026 297988-2026

Contracting Authority:European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound), Wyattville Road, Loughlinstown, D18 KP65 Dublin, Ireland

Procedure Type:Open procedure with publication of contract notice

Nature of Contract:Direct service contract

Funding and Budget Information

Estimated Total Value:€110,000

Maximum Contract Duration:16 months from the date the contract enters into force

Award Method:Best price-quality ratio

Payment Schedule:Interim payment of 30 percent upon approval of inception report and Task 1 deliverables; interim payment of 40 percent upon approval of Task 2 deliverables; final payment of 30 percent upon approval of Task 3 deliverables

Key Deadlines ¹

Scope of Work

The contract comprises three interconnected analytical tasks addressing different dimensions of AI's impact on European labour markets. The work is grounded in EU-wide datasets and aims to develop policy-relevant evidence on how AI technologies are reshaping employment, job quality, wages, and productivity across the EU-27.

Task 1: Harmonisation of Existing AI Exposure Scores and Construction of a Composite Measure

This task requires reviewing, harmonising, and combining existing measures of occupational AI exposure for application to the EU labour market. The contractor must construct a composite AI exposure score at ISCO 4-digit occupational level and NACE 3-digit sectoral level, distinguishing between automation exposure (where AI can fully substitute human labour) and augmentation exposure (where AI raises human productivity or alters task mix while human involvement remains essential). The work involves translating existing measures, primarily built on O*NET task descriptions, to the EU context using the official ESCO-O*NET crosswalk. A LASSO ensemble approach adapted to EU labour market data must be used to weight individual component scores based on their empirical predictive power for labour market outcomes. The contractor must also construct a capability-adoption gap measure identifying occupations and tasks where AI tools with technical capability already exist but labour market adoption remains limited.

Minimum measures to be considered for inclusion include Eloundou et al. (2024), Felten et al. (2021), Eisfeldt et al. (2023), Tomlinson et al. (2025), Loaiza and Rigobon (2024), Gmyrek et al. (2025), Casas et al. (2026), and Autor et al. (2024). Tenderers are invited to expand on this list. The composite score must be validated against EU Labour Force Survey data, and sensitivity analysis must be conducted under alternative weighting schemes.

Task 2: Empirical Analysis of AI Exposure - Implications for Employment, Wages, and Working Conditions

This task applies the composite AI exposure score and capability-adoption gap measure from Task 1 to analyse labour market implications across the EU. The analysis addresses four research questions: how AI exposure relates to wage levels and dynamics across occupations, sectors, and socio-demographic groups; what employment effects AI exposure generates using both cross-sectional and time series Labour Force Survey data; how AI exposure relates to working conditions using European Working Conditions Survey variables; and what structural characteristics are associated with capability-adoption gaps. The contractor must examine whether effects differ between automation-exposed and augmentation-exposed occupations and must construct within-occupation adjustment factors to test whether effects vary systematically within occupations across sectors and countries. Results must be disaggregated by gender, age group, educational attainment, sector, and EU country or country group where sample sizes permit.

Task 3: Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis of the Productivity Effects of AI

This task requires conducting a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of empirical studies examining productivity effects of AI systems, covering both generative AI tools (such as large language models and AI coding assistants) and non-generative AI tools (such as predictive systems and robotics). The review must cover studies published or released as working papers from 2015 onwards. The contractor must conduct systematic searches across defined databases including EconLit, Web of Science, SSRN, IZA Discussion Papers, Google Scholar, IMF Publications, OECD Publications, and NBER Working Papers. Screening must be conducted in two stages with explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria. A structured effect size database must be constructed coding all included studies according to a defined framework. Meta-regression must be used to test key moderators of productivity effects including sector, AI tool type, workforce characteristics, study design, country, and time period.

Eligibility and Participation

Participation is open on equal terms to all natural and legal persons falling within the scope of the EU Treaties, as well as to international organisations. It is also open to natural and legal persons established in third countries that have a special agreement with the Union in the field of public procurement. However, participation is not open to natural and legal persons established in countries that have ratified the Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) concluded within the World Trade Organisation, as the GPA does not apply to Eurofound.

Tenderers must ensure that no involved entities nor any subcontractors are subject to EU restrictive measures adopted under Article 29 of the Treaty on the European Union or Article 215 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU. Eurofound reserves the right to reject a tenderer found in a professional conflict of interest that may adversely affect contract performance.

Submission Requirements

Submission Method:Electronic submission exclusively via the eSubmission system available on the EU Funding and Tenders Portal. Tenders submitted by email or letter will be disregarded.

Registration Requirement:Each economic operator (or each member of a group in the case of a joint tender) must register in the European Commission's Participant Register to obtain a Participant Identification Code (PIC). Economic operators already registered must reuse their existing PICs.

EU Login Account:An EU Login authentication account is required to subscribe to calls for tenders, submit questions, and submit tenders electronically. As of 30 June 2026, two-factor authentication will be required to access EU Login accounts.

Tender Structure:Tenders must include identification of the tenderer, non-exclusion declarations, selection criteria evidence, technical offer, and financial offer. The technical offer must cover all aspects and tasks required in the technical specifications and provide all information needed to apply award criteria. Offers deviating from requirements or not covering all requirements may be rejected.

Language:Tenders may be submitted in any official language of the European Union. Procurement documents are published in English, which constitutes the sole authentic text.

Tender Validity:The validity period of tenders is indicated in the contract notice. During this period, tenderers may not modify the terms of their tenders.

Selection Criteria

Tenderers must demonstrate experience and capacity across multiple dimensions. The selection criteria are assessed on a consolidated basis for joint tenders, meaning the group as a whole must meet the requirements.

Criteria Relating to Tenderers

Criterion A1 - Experience in Labour Economics and Labour Market Research:The tenderer must prove experience in labour economics and labour market research with specific expertise in measuring occupational exposure to artificial intelligence, analysing EU-wide labour market datasets including the Labour Force Survey, European Working Conditions Survey, and AIM-Work survey, advanced quantitative and statistical analysis methods including ensemble modelling, meta-analysis, and regression techniques, and drafting policy-relevant research reports and recommendations. Evidence required: references for two projects delivered in these fields in the last three years with minimum value of €50,000 each, with at least one providing evidence of experience with advanced data analysis techniques; short description of economic activities.

Criterion A2 - English Language Capacity:The tenderer must prove capacity to draft reports in English. Evidence required: one document of at least 10 pages (report, study, etc.) drafted and published or delivered to a client in the last two years, with verification conducted on 5 pages of the document.

Criteria Relating to the Team Delivering the Service

The contractor must provide CVs of the following key team members, with each CV indicating the intended function in service delivery:

• Project Manager: At least five years of experience in project management, including overseeing project delivery, quality control, client orientation and conflict resolution in projects of similar size (at least €50,000) with EU-wide coverage and experience managing teams of at least four people. Evidence: CV.
• Senior Expert in Labour Economics: At least seven years of professional experience in labour economics research with relevant higher education degree at doctoral level or equivalent professional experience, and at least three years of experience in analysing occupational exposure to artificial intelligence or closely related fields, including experience with EU-wide labour market datasets such as the Labour Force Survey or European Working Conditions Survey. Experience with advanced quantitative methods is required. Evidence: CV.
• Two Experts in Quantitative Labour Market Analysis: At least five years of professional experience in quantitative labour market analysis with relevant higher education degree at master's level or above, and demonstrated experience using EU labour market microdata including at least two of the following: Labour Force Survey, European Working Conditions Survey, AIM-Work survey, or Eurostat ICT Use by Individuals and Households survey. Experience with regression analysis, panel data methods, and time series modelling is required. Evidence: CV.
• Language Quality Check: At least one team member must have C1 level or above in English in the Common European Framework of Reference for Languages, demonstrated through language certificate or past relevant experience indicated in CV. Evidence: Language certificate or CV.

Eurofound recommends submitting CVs in the EU Europass format, which can be created at [[europa.eu.

Financial Offer Requirements

A complete financial offer including breakdown of price must be submitted using the template provided in the Standard Reply Form. The financial offer must be expressed in euros, with tenderers from countries outside the euro zone quoting prices in euro. The price quoted may not be revised in line with exchange rate movements, and the tenderer bears risks or benefits from any variation. The quoted price must be free of all duties, taxes and other charges, including VAT. The European Union is exempt from VAT under Articles 3 and 4 of the Protocol on the Privileges and Immunities of the European Union.

The quoted price must be a fixed amount including all charges such as travel, subsistence, and any other costs necessary for contract performance. Travel and subsistence expenses are not refundable separately. Eurofound reserves the right not to select a contractor if the proposed price exceeds the allocated budget. Abnormally low tenders may be rejected, particularly if the tenderer or subcontractor does not comply with applicable obligations in environmental, social and labour law.

The financial offer must include breakdown of costs for the inception report, Task 1 (harmonisation of existing AI exposure scores and construction of composite measure), Task 2 (empirical analysis of AI exposure), and Task 3 (systematic literature review and meta-analysis of productivity effects).

Expected Deliverables

The contract requires delivery of multiple outputs across the three tasks, with specific deadlines measured from the reference date (contract entry into force). ²

Inception Phase

• Minutes of kick-off meeting (within 2 weeks of reference date)
• Inception report (within 6 weeks of reference date) including restatement of objectives, detailed sequenced work plan, refined methodological description for each task, proposed methodology for investigating drivers of capability-adoption gap, preliminary assessment of key data sources, feasibility assessment of Eurostat ICT survey integration, usable LFS time series assessment, and identification of main methodological and data risks with mitigation strategies

Task 1 Deliverables

• Methodology report (draft at 3 months, final at 4 months) describing selection of existing measures, rationale for inclusion or exclusion, LASSO ensemble construction procedure, EU recalibration exercise, ESCO-O*NET crosswalk application and treatment of different match types, and derivation of frontier classification and capability-adoption gap measure, sufficiently detailed to allow replication
• Composite AI exposure score dataset at ISCO 4-digit and NACE 3-digit level (at 4 months) delivered as standalone dataset distinguishing between automation and augmentation exposure, with full documentation of ensemble construction procedure, selection and weighting of component measures, ESCO-O*NET crosswalk application, EU recalibration exercise results, and sensitivity analysis under alternative weighting schemes
• Capability-adoption gap measure dataset (at 5 months) at same occupational and sectoral granularity with full documentation of methodology for combining composite exposure score with observed AI adoption data from matched EWCS-AIM-Work dataset and Eurostat ICT Use by Individuals and Households survey, including treatment of discrepancies between sources
• Policy brief (draft at 6 months, final at 7 months) presenting headline findings on which socio-demographic groups, occupations, sectors, and EU countries face greatest automation and augmentation effects and where capability-adoption gaps are largest

Task 2 Deliverables

• Analytical report (draft at 8 months, final at 9 months) of no more than 40,000 words presenting empirical findings in full with complete documentation of data sources, methodology, and results, including summary chapter translating findings into policy-relevant conclusions on which worker groups, sectors, and countries face greatest risks of labour market disruption and which stand to benefit from AI-driven augmentation. Must include abstract of no more than 150 words and executive summary of no more than 1,050 words.

Task 3 Deliverables

• Scoping review (at 4 months) providing preliminary narrative synthesis of evidence on AI and productivity effects, covering main findings, methodological approaches, and emerging gaps in literature
• Effect size database (at 11 months) containing all studies included in meta-analysis, coded according to defined framework, delivered as standalone and fully documented dataset suitable for reuse in future research and policy monitoring
• Systematic review and meta-analysis report (draft at 13 months, final at 15 months) including full documentation of search and screening process, description of effect size database and coding procedure, meta-regression results with relevant figures, and policy conclusions
• Policy brief (draft at 14 months, final at 16 months) distilling headline findings and implications for EU AI and labour market policy, addressed to policymakers, social partners, and other relevant stakeholders

Data Protection Requirements

The tenderer must possess appropriate data processing technical and organisational measures meeting minimum requirements. These include technical capability for pseudonymisation and/or encryption of personal data; security measures ensuring ongoing confidentiality, integrity, availability, and resilience of processing systems and services; technical measures for promptly restoring availability and access to personal data in event of physical or technical incident; internal process for effectively erasing all personal data upon request; internal control measures to prevent retention of data beyond necessary periods; internal process for promptly and effectively notifying Eurofound of any exercise of data subjects' rights or data breaches; internal process for regular testing, assessment, and evaluation of effectiveness of technical and organisational measures; security measures to safeguard personal data from accidental or unlawful destruction, loss, alteration, unauthorised disclosure, or access during transmission, storage, or processing; process for maintaining records of all data processing operations; and localisation of and access to personal data exclusively within the territory of the European Union or European Economic Area, not extending beyond said jurisdiction.

A Data Protection Due Diligence Checklist must be completed and provided with the tender by the tenderer, each group member in case of joint tender, and subcontractors who are data subprocessors. A negative answer to any questions related to data protection minimum requirements may lead to tender rejection.

Intellectual Property and Pre-existing Rights

If pre-existing material will form any part of the final results, this must be declared in the tender proposal with information about scope of pre-existing materials, their source, and when and how rights have been or will be acquired. All quotations or information originating from other sources and to which third parties may claim rights must be clearly marked with source publication including date and place, creator, number, and full title in a way allowing easy identification. The successful contractor will be requested to establish a list of all pre-existing rights and rights of creators and third parties on the results of the contract or parts thereof, to be provided no later than the date of delivery of final results.

Tender Submission and Evaluation Process

Tenders must be submitted exclusively via the eSubmission system. No more than one tender can be considered per tenderer. If the same tenderer submits more than one tender, neither of which has been withdrawn, only the latest tender will be considered. The tenderer may not refer to earlier submitted tenders to complement, clarify or correct its latest tender. All costs incurred for preparation and submission of tenders and for attending the opening session are borne by tenderers and will not be reimbursed.

Tenders will be opened on 09 June 2026 at 10:30 Dublin time. A maximum of two representatives per tender may attend the opening session. Tenderers must provide full name, date of birth, nationality, and ID or passport number of their representative(s) at least two working days in advance to ef-procurement@eurofound.europa.eu. Representatives must present the submission receipt generated by eSubmission and sign an attendance sheet.

The public part of the opening session will be strictly limited to verification that each tender has been submitted in accordance with submission requirements and announcement of tenders received with names of tenderers announced. Tenderers not present may send an information request to ef-procurement@eurofound.europa.eu to receive information announced during public opening.

Questions and Clarifications

Any request for additional information must be made in writing only through the F&T Portal by clicking 'Create a question' in the 'Questions and answers' section. The contracting authority is not bound to reply to requests for additional information received less than six working days before the time-limit for receipt of tenders. The contracting authority may, on its own initiative, inform interested parties of any error, inaccuracy, omission or other clerical error in procurement documents. Any additional information will be published on the F&T Portal, and it is the economic operator's responsibility to check for updates and modifications during the submission period.

Joint Tenders and Subcontracting

A joint tender is a situation where a tender is submitted by a group of economic operators regardless of the link they have between them. The group as a whole is considered a tenderer. Group members must appoint a group leader as a single point of contact authorised to act on their behalf. All group members, including the group leader, must sign an Agreement/Power of attorney. The joint tender must clearly indicate the role and tasks of each group member, including the group leader who will act as the contracting authority's contact point for administrative or financial aspects and operational management.

If the joint tender is successful, the contracting authority will sign the contract with the group leader, authorised by other members to sign on their behalf via the Agreement/Power of attorney. Changes in group composition during the procurement procedure after the deadline for submission and before contract signature will lead to tender rejection, except in specific cases involving merger, takeover, or removal of a member subject to restrictive measures or exclusion, provided cumulative conditions are fulfilled.

Subcontracting is permitted. All contractual tasks may be subcontracted unless procurement documents expressly reserve execution of certain critical tasks to the sole tenderer or, in case of joint tender, to a group member. Identified subcontractors (those on whose capacities the tenderer relies to fulfil selection criteria or whose intended individual share exceeds 10 percent) must provide commitment letters. Changes concerning identified subcontractors during the procurement procedure require prior written approval of the contracting authority. The exclusion criteria apply to all identified subcontractors, who must submit a Declaration on Honour on exclusion criteria.

A tenderer may also rely on capacities of other entities that are not subcontractors to fulfil selection criteria, provided it produces a commitment letter signed by the authorised representative of such entity and supporting evidence that those entities have the respective resources. With regard to technical and professional selection criteria, a tenderer may only rely on capacities of other entities where the latter will perform the works or services for which these capacities are required.

Exclusion Criteria

Tenderers must declare that they are not in any exclusion situation. Exclusion situations include bankruptcy, insolvency or winding-up procedures; breach of obligations relating to payment of taxes or social security contributions; grave professional misconduct; fraud, corruption or other criminal offences; significant deficiencies in complying with main obligations in implementation of a legal commitment financed by the Union's budget; irregularities; creation of an entity in a different jurisdiction with intent to circumvent fiscal, social or other legal obligations; and intentional and without proper justification resisting an investigation, check or audit.

Tenderers must also declare that natural or legal persons with power of representation, decision-making or control over the legal person, or beneficial owners, are not in any of the above exclusion situations. Where a tenderer declares an exclusion situation, it may indicate remedial measures taken to remedy the situation to allow the authorising officer to determine whether such measures are sufficient to demonstrate reliability. Remedial measures do not apply to situations involving fraud, corruption or other criminal offences.

Data Protection and Privacy

If processing a reply to the invitation to tender involves recording and processing of personal data such as name, address and CV, such data will be processed pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2018/1725 on the protection of natural persons with regard to the processing of personal data by Union institutions, bodies, offices and agencies. Personal data will be processed solely for evaluation purposes under the call for tenders by Eurofound acting as data controller. Details concerning processing of personal data are available in the privacy statement. Tenderers may exercise rights under Regulation (EU) 2018/1725 or submit complaints regarding collection and use of personal data by contacting ef-procurement@eurofound.europa.eu.

A tenderer's personal data may be registered in the Early Detection and Exclusion System (EDES) if the tenderer is in one of the situations mentioned in Article 138 of the Financial Regulation. For more information, see the privacy statement at [[commission.europa.eu.

Key Contextual Information on AI and Productivity in Europe

The research context for this tender is significant. Recent macroeconomic evidence indicates that medium-term productivity gains for Europe from AI adoption are likely to be modest, at around 1 percent cumulatively over five years, though this varies widely across scenarios and countries and is substantially larger in countries with higher incomes. However, national and EU regulations around occupation-level requirements, AI safety, and data privacy combined could reduce Europe's productivity gains by over 30 percent if AI exposure were 50 percent lower in tasks, occupations and sectors affected by regulation. At the firm level, evidence from matched EIBIS-ORBIS data on more than 12,000 non-financial firms in the EU and US shows that firms adopting AI have 4 percent higher labour productivity, with larger productivity gains in medium and large firms compared to micro and small enterprises. Controlled workplace studies consistently show large productivity gains from AI in task categories such as writing, customer support, software development, and translation, often improving quality as well as speed, with disproportionately large benefits for less-experienced workers.

Contact Information and Resources

For technical problems with eSubmission, contact the eSubmission Helpdesk as detailed in the eSubmission Quick Guide available at [[webgate.ec.europa.eu (access requires EU Login account). Supported browsers, file types, attachment sizes, and other system requirements can be consulted at [[webgate.ec.europa.eu. For questions about the procurement procedure, contact ef-procurement@eurofound.europa.eu.

The official F&T Portal link for this opportunity is [[ec.europa.eu. Subscription to the call for tenders at this link allows interested economic operators to receive email notifications when new information or documents are published. Subscription is free of charge and does not involve any commitment to submit a tender.

Procurement documents consist of the contract notice, invitation letter, draft contract, and tender specifications with their respective annexes. All documents are published in English, which constitutes the sole authentic text and prevails over any other language versions that may be published on request of economic operators. The documents are available in the Funding and Tenders Portal.

Important Notes for Applicants

This invitation to tender is in no way binding on the contracting authority. The contracting authority's contractual obligation commences only when the contract with the successful tenderer is signed by both parties. Up to the point of signature of the contract, the contracting authority may cancel the procurement procedure without tenderers being entitled to claim any compensation. Any such decision must be substantiated and tenderers notified.

Submission of a tender implies acceptance of all terms and conditions set out in the procurement documents and, where appropriate, waiver of the tenderer's own general or specific terms and conditions. The submitted tender is binding on the tenderer to whom the contract is awarded for the duration of the contract.

Tenders must be drawn and submitted in complete independence and autonomously from other tenders. A natural or legal person cannot participate at the same time within the same procedure either as member of two or more groups of economic operators or as a sole tenderer and member of another group. In such case, all tenders in which that person has participated will be rejected. Economic operators linked by a relationship of control or association are allowed to submit different and separate tenders provided each tenderer can demonstrate its tender was drawn independently and autonomously.

A natural or legal person may act as subcontractor for several tenderers as long as tenders are drawn and submitted in complete independence and autonomously from each other. However, cross subcontracting among tenderers is forbidden. An entity may participate as tenderer and as subcontractor to another tenderer within the same procedure, but it is forbidden that the other tenderer is at the same time subcontractor for the first tenderer. In this case, both tenders shall be rejected.

Tenderers should avoid offering price reductions or discounts based on conditions not explicitly stated in the tender documents. Where a maximum budget is mentioned in the tender specifications, financial proposals exceeding this amount will be rejected.

Footnotes

1. 1All deadlines are expressed in Dublin time, which is the local time at the contracting authority's location. Tenderers are responsible for ensuring their submissions comply with the time-limit for receipt of tenders. The submission receipt provided by eSubmission with the official date and time of receipt constitutes proof of compliance with the time-limit.
2. 2The reference date is the date on which the contract enters into force, which is the date on which the last party signs the contract. All deliverable deadlines are measured from this reference date. The provisional timetable provided in the tender specifications indicates the expected schedule, but the actual reference date will be determined upon contract signature.