Advancing integrated scenarios and prediction models for informing transition to a nature positive society

Overview

The Horizon Europe Call HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-BIODIV-05 is an initiative aimed at advancing integrated ecosystem prediction and modeling capabilities to inform policy for a nature-positive society. The total funding available for this call is €10 million, with the expectation of awarding grants to two projects, each receiving between €5 million and €5 million.

Eligible applicants for this opportunity include legal entities from EU member states and Associated Countries, such as research organizations, small and medium-sized enterprises, large enterprises, non-profits, and public institutions. While single applicants can apply, the call encourages multi-disciplinary consortia to foster collaboration across various fields, including bio-physical sciences, socio-economic analysis, and humanities.

The application process is a single-stage open call, with proposals due by September 17, 2026. Preceding this date, applicants must submit comprehensive proposals that will be evaluated against criteria including excellence, impact, and implementation. The successful projects must demonstrate how ecosystems respond to human pressures and develop validated frameworks for ecosystem assessment.

The funding operates via a lump sum grant modality, simplifying financial management and reducing administrative burdens. Additionally, co-funding is not a requirement, which may lower entry barriers for participants. The call places a strong emphasis on the integration of long-term monitoring data and inclusivity of stakeholders in scenario development.

Geographic eligibility includes EU and EEA regions, with the stipulation that projects span at least two different European biogeographic regions. The related sectors include biodiversity conservation, environmental monitoring, climate adaptation, and more.

This call directly supports key European policies, such as the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and the European Green Deal. The aim is to bridge scientific gaps by creating a framework for assessing ecosystem responses, which will inform systemic policy transformations. Applicants are encouraged to leverage existing research, maintain close ties with the European Commission’s Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity, and coordinate with relevant initiatives like ESA's FutureEO programme.

Overall, this funding opportunity is positioned as a leading-edge research initiative targeting the intersection of ecosystem science and policy-making, fostering international collaboration, and enhancing the understanding of complex interdependencies among biodiversity, climate, and socio-economic factors.

Detail

This is a Horizon Europe call for proposals aimed at "Advancing integrated scenarios and prediction models for informing transition to a nature positive society." The call falls under the Horizon Europe Programme, specifically Call 01 single stage (2026) (HORIZON-CL6-2026-01). The type of action is HORIZON-RIA (Research and Innovation Actions), utilizing a HORIZON Lump Sum Grant [HORIZON-AG-LS] Model Grant Agreement (MGA). The call is forthcoming, with a single-stage deadline model. The planned opening date is April 17, 2026, and the deadline is September 17, 2026, at 17:00:00 Brussels time.

The expected outcomes of the projects funded under this call are:

Advanced knowledge and understanding of how ecosystems respond to multiple plausible futures shaped by human-induced pressures, supporting the design of long-term, nature-positive, and equitable policies.
Strengthened collaboration across bio-physical, socio-economic, and humanities disciplines, resulting in more integrated and robust scenario frameworks that capture interactions, trade-offs, and synergies across biodiversity, climate, food, water, air, health, energy, and the economy.
Advancement of comprehensive ecosystem prediction models and scenario-based assessments that integrate direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss, applicable across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems.
A consistent and transparent framework for model intercomparison and cross-scale scenario building, improving the relevance and usability of modeling outputs for policy, business, and international assessments (e.g., IPBES, International Panel on Climate Change IPCC).

The scope of the call is to address the objectives of the European Green Deal, the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030, the EU Nature Restoration Regulation, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), and the Sustainable Development Goals. Actions funded should support the scientific development of:

A) Integrated scenarios
B) Predictive models
C) Model intercomparison experiments

These developments should be verified in case studies covering at least two European biogeographic regions and spanning key economic sectors to inform systemic policy transformations and enable long-term planning for a nature-positive society.

Proposals should:

Design and develop components of a European integrated prediction and scenario framework to forecast how natural ecosystems respond to a wide range of human-induced ecosystem interactions, including climate change, pollution, socio-economic transitions, pressures, and policy interventions. These frameworks should link ecosystem functions with key economic sectors, such as agriculture and fisheries, and test their resilience and tipping points under multiple plausible futures.
Make use of long-term monitoring data across biodiversity, land use, climate, and socio-economic variables to improve reliability and real-world relevance. They should also quantify uncertainty in model projections and ensure scenarios incorporate dynamic feedback loops between ecosystems and socio-economic systems, and identify risk distributions relevant to frontline socio-ecological communities.
Test and assess the suitability of the IPBES Nature Futures Framework for European application and align modeling approaches with international efforts and assessments under IPBES and IPCC. Proposals should seek to address knowledge gaps identified by the relevant IPBES assessments and, if appropriate, provide recommendations to policymakers.
Advance model intercomparison capabilities to improve robustness, consistency, and transparency in scenario-based assessments. To this end, the suitability of remote sensing data for scalability and intercomparison between different models and across different regions should be assessed.

Proposals should include case studies that cover at least two European biogeographic regions with global relevance to verify the developed scenarios, models, and intercomparison experiments. Case studies should consider different geographical scales and explore ecosystem telecoupling across Europe and beyond. Scenario development should involve relevant stakeholders including public authorities, economic sectors, and civil society in co-creating narratives and ensuring policy applicability. Socio-economic transitions and equity and justice considerations concerning trade-offs and distributional impacts across regions and communities (i.e., across biodiversity, climate, food, water, air, health, energy, and the economy) should be explicitly addressed in scenario assessments. Proposals are encouraged to address livelihood and distributional impacts linked to each nature-positive pathway and to broadly and publicly communicate developed scenarios through interactive simulation interfaces (i.e., at the example of EN-ROADS).

Proposals should create synergies with and build on existing knowledge and results of other relevant EU-funded projects and foresee appropriate resources to ensure close cooperation with the EC Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity (KCBD) and its Science Service, including dedicated tasks and resources for coordination measures. This topic is part of a coordination initiative between ESA and the EC on Earth System Science (ESSI). Successful proposals are expected to cooperate with projects that will be selected under ESA's FutureEO programme, including sufficient means and resources for effective coordination.

The general conditions for this call include:

1. Admissibility Conditions: Proposal page limit and layout described in Annex A and Annex E of the Horizon Europe Work Programme General Annexes and Part B of the Application Form available in the Submission System.
2. Eligible Countries described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes. Specific provisions exist for non-EU/non-Associated Countries, as detailed in the Horizon Europe Programme Guide.
3. Other Eligible Conditions described in Annex B of the Work Programme General Annexes.
4. Financial and operational capacity and exclusion described in Annex C of the Work Programme General Annexes.
5a. Evaluation and award: Award criteria, scoring, and thresholds are described in Annex D of the Work Programme General Annexes.
5b. Evaluation and award: Submission and evaluation processes are described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes and the Online Manual.
5c. Evaluation and award: Indicative timeline for evaluation and grant agreement described in Annex F of the Work Programme General Annexes.
6. Legal and financial set-up of the grants: Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021. This is further described in Annex G of the Work Programme General Annexes.

Specific conditions are described in the specific topic of the Work Programme.

Application and evaluation forms and model grant agreement (MGA) information:

Application form templates are available in the Submission System, including the Standard application form (HE RIA, IA).
Evaluation form templates will be used with necessary adaptations, including the Standard evaluation form (HE RIA, IA).
Guidance is provided in the HE Programme Guide.
Model Grant Agreements (MGA) include the Lump Sum MGA.
Call-specific instructions include a detailed budget table (HE LS) and guidance on lump sums.

Additional documents include:

HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 1. General Introduction
HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 9. Food, Bioeconomy, Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment
HE Main Work Programme 2026-2027 15. General Annexes
HE Programme Guide
HE Framework Programme 2021/695
HE Specific Programme Decision 2021/764
EU Financial Regulation 2024/2509
Decision authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme
Rules for Legal Entity Validation, LEAR Appointment and Financial Capacity Assessment
EU Grants AGA Annotated Model Grant Agreement
Funding & Tenders Portal Online Manual
Funding & Tenders Portal Terms and Conditions
Funding & Tenders Portal Privacy Statement

The budget overview for the year 2026 includes several topics:

HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-BIODIV-01 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 13,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-BIODIV-02 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 10,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-BIODIV-03 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 18,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-BIODIV-04 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 13,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-BIODIV-05 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 10,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-BIODIV-06 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 12,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-01 HORIZON-IA: Budget 11,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-02 HORIZON-IA: Budget 11,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-03 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 10,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-04 HORIZON-IA: Budget 10,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-05 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 6,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-06 HORIZON-CSA: Budget 3,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 1
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-07 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 12,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 3
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-08 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 8,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-09 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 12,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-10 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 8,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-CIRCBIO-11 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 10,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-ZEROPOLLUTION-01 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 10,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 1
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-ZEROPOLLUTION-02 HORIZON-IA: Budget 11,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2
HORIZON-CL6-2026-01-ZEROPOLLUTION-03 HORIZON-RIA: Budget 12,000,000 EUR, Indicative number of grants 2

Partner search announcements can be viewed and edited on the portal. LEARs, Account Administrators, and self-registrants can publish partner requests.

The submission system is planned to open on the date stated on the topic header.

For support, applicants are encouraged to read all provisions carefully, consult the Online Manual and Horizon Europe Programme Guide, check the Funding & Tenders Portal FAQ, and contact the Research Enquiry Service, National Contact Points (NCPs), Enterprise Europe Network, IT Helpdesk, European IPR Helpdesk, and CEN-CENELEC/ETSI Research Helpdesks.

In summary, this Horizon Europe call seeks to fund projects that will develop integrated scenarios, predictive models, and model intercomparison experiments to support the transition to a nature-positive society. The projects should align with the European Green Deal and other relevant EU and international frameworks, involve stakeholders, and consider socio-economic and equity aspects. The funding will be provided as a lump sum, and successful proposals are expected to collaborate with other relevant initiatives and projects. The call aims to improve our understanding of ecosystem responses to human pressures and inform long-term policy planning for a sustainable future.

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Breakdown

Eligible Applicant Types: The eligible applicant types are not explicitly stated but can be inferred to include entities capable of conducting research and innovation actions, as well as coordination and support actions. This likely encompasses universities, research institutes, SMEs, large enterprises, and other relevant organizations from Member States and Associated Countries. The mention of public authorities, economic sectors, and civil society as stakeholders suggests their potential eligibility or involvement in projects.

Funding Type: The primary funding mechanism is grants, specifically HORIZON Research and Innovation Actions (HORIZON-RIA), HORIZON Innovation Actions (HORIZON-IA) and HORIZON Coordination and Support Actions (HORIZON-CSA) under the Horizon Europe Programme. Eligible costs will take the form of a lump sum as defined in the Decision of 7 July 2021 authorising the use of lump sum contributions under the Horizon Europe Programme.

Consortium Requirement: While not explicitly stated, the nature of the projects, particularly the need for integrated scenarios, predictive models, and intercomparison experiments, along with the requirement for case studies across multiple biogeographic regions and the encouragement of stakeholder involvement, suggests that a consortium of multiple applicants is highly preferred, if not required. Partner search announcements are explicitly mentioned, which further implies that consortia are expected.

Beneficiary Scope (Geographic Eligibility): The geographic eligibility includes Member States and Associated Countries of the Horizon Europe Programme. The program guide indicates that some non-EU/non-Associated Countries may also be eligible for funding, depending on specific provisions. The project should include case studies that cover at least two European biogeographic regions.

Target Sector: The program targets the following sectors: environment, climate, agriculture/food, biodiversity, bioeconomy, natural resources, Earth System Science, and related economic sectors like agriculture and fisheries. It focuses on the development and application of integrated scenarios and predictive models for ecosystems, aiming for a nature-positive society.

Mentioned Countries: No specific countries are mentioned, but the eligibility extends to Member States and Associated Countries of the Horizon Europe Programme. The focus is on European biogeographic regions.

Project Stage: The project stage encompasses research, development, and innovation, with an emphasis on validation and application. The call aims to support the scientific development of integrated scenarios, predictive models, and model intercomparison experiments, which suggests a focus on advancing existing research towards practical application and policy relevance.

Funding Amount: The funding amounts vary depending on the specific topic and type of action (RIA, IA, CSA). The budget overview provides the following ranges:
HORIZON-RIA: typically around €3 million to €10 million per project, with some projects up to €18 million.
HORIZON-IA: €5 million to €6 million per project.
HORIZON-CSA: around €3 million per project.

Application Type: The application type is an open call with a single-stage submission process.

Nature of Support: Beneficiaries will receive money in the form of grants to cover eligible costs, which will take the form of a lump sum.

Application Stages: The application process involves a single stage.

Success Rates: The success rates are not explicitly mentioned, but the indicative number of grants for each topic provides some insight into the potential competitiveness.

Co-funding Requirement: The need for co-funding is not explicitly mentioned.

Summary: This Horizon Europe call aims to advance the scientific development of integrated scenarios, predictive models, and model intercomparison experiments to support the transition to a nature-positive society. It seeks to address the objectives of the European Green Deal, the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030, the EU Nature Restoration Regulation, and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), as well as Sustainable Development Goals. The call encourages proposals that design and develop components of a European integrated prediction and scenario framework, utilize long-term monitoring data, test and assess the suitability of the IPBES Nature Futures Framework, and advance model intercomparison capabilities. Projects should include case studies covering at least two European biogeographic regions and involve relevant stakeholders in scenario development. The funding is provided as lump-sum grants, and consortia of multiple applicants from Member States and Associated Countries are expected. The call targets a range of sectors, including environment, climate, agriculture/food, and related economic activities, with a focus on research, development, and innovation to inform policy and practice.

Short Summary

Impact
Advance integrated ecosystem prediction and scenario modeling capabilities for informing Europe's transition to a nature-positive society.
Applicant
Entities capable of conducting research and innovation actions, particularly those with strong research and modeling capabilities across bio-physical, socio-economic, and humanities disciplines.
Developments
Research and innovation actions focused on ecosystem modeling, scenario building, and predictive frameworks for biodiversity conservation and protection.
Applicant Type
Legal entities from EU Member States and Associated Countries, including research organizations, SMEs, large enterprises, non-profit organizations, and public institutions.
Consortium
A consortium of multiple applicants is strongly encouraged, though not formally mandated.
Funding Amount
€5,000,000 per project, with a total budget of €10,000,000 for the call.
Countries
EU Member States and Associated Countries, with case studies required to cover at least two European biogeographic regions.
Industry
Horizon Europe, specifically targeting biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services.

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